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Sudden stops of capital flows: Do foreign assets behave differently from foreign liabilities?

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  • Agosin, Manuel R.
  • Díaz, Juan D.
  • Karnani, Mohit
Abstract
We study the determinants of sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets. Using gross international asset and liability flows (from the point of view of domestic residents), we identify three types of situations: countries that do not experience any type of sudden stops; those who experience a sudden stop in inflows (liabilities), but no sudden stop in their net financial account of the balance of payments; and countries who suffer a sudden stop in inflows and in their net financial account. Based on these three events, we estimate a multinomial logit model and obtain two important results. We find that developed countries have about the same probability of experiencing sudden stops in gross capital inflows as emerging economies. Moreover, the probability of experiencing a sudden stop in gross inflows that winds up becoming a sudden stop in the financial account is affected by the behavior of a country's international assets: countries whose agents possess assets abroad tend to repatriate them during periods of sudden stops in inflows, while the economies of countries whose agents do not possess foreign assets are much more sensitive to the behavior of foreign investors: a sudden stop in inflows can have very adverse effects on output and employment.

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  • Agosin, Manuel R. & Díaz, Juan D. & Karnani, Mohit, 2019. "Sudden stops of capital flows: Do foreign assets behave differently from foreign liabilities?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 28-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:96:y:2019:i:c:p:28-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.04.010
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    1. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
    2. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio & Alejandro Micco & Christopher Neilson, 2008. "Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops, and Sudden Starts," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 5, pages 159-194, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
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    6. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
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    13. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
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    16. Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
    18. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    19. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 171-214, January.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mengting Zhang & Andreas Steiner & Jakob de Haan & Haizhen Yang, 2024. "Capital flow reversals and currency crises: Do capital flow types matter?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1787-1823, September.
    2. Cubeddu, Luis & Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali & Rabanal, Pau, 2023. "External financing risks: How important is the composition of the international investment position?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Agosin, Manuel R., 2023. "Productive development policy for Chile: an alternative to stagnation," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    4. Manuel Agosin & Juan D. Díaz, 2020. "Explaining the Volatility of the Real Exchange Rate in Emerging Markets," Working Papers wp507, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    5. Maria Siranova & Menbere Workie Tiruneh & Brian Konig, 2024. "From abnormal FDI to a normal driver of sudden stop episodes," Working Papers 2024.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Hernández, Juan & González Jaramillo, María José & Powell, Andrew, 2023. "The Dog That Didn't Bite: Sudden Stops in Emerging and Developing Countries During COVID-19," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13133, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. M Belén Salas & David Alaminos & Manuel Angel Fernández & Francisco López-Valverde, 2020. "A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "Policies for managing sudden stops," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(1), pages 9-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stops; Capital controls; Financial deepening;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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