[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v47y2020ics1051137718300445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cohort insights into recovery of Millennial homeownership after the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Myers, Dowell
  • Lee, Hyojung
  • Simmons, Patrick A.
Abstract
Analysis tests the differences between age and cohort rates of homeownership, and evaluates lagged factors that have delayed Millennial home buying following the Great Recession. The first lag is structural: age group rates of homeownership are stock accumulations of home buying in prior years, slowly changing and heavily weighted by past achievement. In contrast, the inflow of homeowners is reflected in cohorts’ annual net increments of homeownership and provides a better measure of current demand. These cohort gains in homeownership rates turned sharply upward after 2012, four years earlier than age group rates finally stabilized. Increases in cohort rates of homeownership are shown to be much more predictive of aggregate home buying in a given period than the slowly-changing, age group (stock) rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Myers, Dowell & Lee, Hyojung & Simmons, Patrick A., 2020. "Cohort insights into recovery of Millennial homeownership after the Great Recession," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:47:y:2020:i:c:s1051137718300445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2019.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137718300445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2019.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Kwan Ok & Painter, Gary, 2013. "What happens to household formation in a recession?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 93-109.
    2. Dowell Myers, 2016. "Peak Millennials: Three Reinforcing Cycles That Amplify the Rise and Fall of Urban Concentration by Millennials," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 928-947, November.
    3. William R. Emmons & Bryan J. Noeth, 2014. "Housing crash continues to overshadow young families' balance sheets," In the Balance, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 7, pages 1-6.
    4. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    5. Coulson, N. Edward & Dalton, Maurice, 2010. "Temporal and ethnic decompositions of homeownership rates: Synthetic cohorts across five censuses," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 155-166, September.
    6. Pitkin, John R. & Myers, Dowell, 1994. "The Specification of Demographic Effects on Housing Demand: Avoiding the Age-Cohort Fallacy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-250, September.
    7. Green, Richard K., 1996. "Should the stagnant homeownership rate be a source of concern?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 337-368, June.
    8. Andrew Paciorek, 2016. "The Long and the Short of Household Formation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 7-40, February.
    9. Artle, Roland & Varaiya, Pravin, 1978. "Life cycle consumption and homeownership," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 38-58, June.
    10. Dowell Myers & Gary Painter & Zhou Yu & Sung Ryu & Liang Wei, 2005. "Regional disparities in homeownership trajectories: Impacts of affordability, new construction, and immigration," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 53-83.
    11. Donald R. Haurin & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2007. "The Influence of Household Formation on Homeownership Rates Across Time and Race," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 411-450, December.
    12. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    13. Stuart A. Gabriel & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2015. "The Boom, the Bust and the Future of Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 334-374, June.
    14. Dowell Myers & John Pitkin, 2009. "Demographi Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040," Working Paper 8518, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shamma Adeeb Alam & Bijetri Bose, 2022. "Stepping into adulthood during a recession: Did job losses during the Great Recession impact health of young adults?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 1730-1751, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou Yu & Dowell Myers, 2010. "Misleading Comparisons of Homeownership Rates when the Variable Effect of Household Formation Is Ignored: Explaining Rising Homeownership and the Homeownership Gap between Blacks and Asians in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(12), pages 2615-2640, November.
    2. Coulson, N. Edward & Dalton, Maurice, 2010. "Temporal and ethnic decompositions of homeownership rates: Synthetic cohorts across five censuses," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 155-166, September.
    3. Shaun A. Bond & Michael D. Eriksen, 2021. "The role of parents on the home ownership experience of their children: Evidence from the health and retirement study," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 433-458, June.
    4. Ricks, Judith S., 2021. "Mortgage subsidies, homeownership, and marriage: Effects of the VA loan program," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Serena Trucchi, 2011. "How credit markets affect homeownership: an explanation based on differences between Italian regions," CeRP Working Papers 122, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    6. Dowell Myers & John Pitkin, 2009. "Demographi Forces and Turning Points in the American City, 1950-2040," Working Paper 8518, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    7. Samuel Dodini & Jeff Larrimore & Jenny Schuetz, 2016. "What are the Perceived Barriers to Homeownership for Young Adults?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-021, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ezgi Kaya, 2018. "Young Adults Living with their Parents and the Influence of Peers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 689-713, June.
    9. Zhou Yu, 2003. "Housing Tenure Choice of Taiwanese Immigrants: A Different Path to Residential Assimilation," Working Paper 8611, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    10. David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.
    11. Dettling, Lisa J. & Hsu, Joanne W., 2018. "Returning to the nest: Debt and parental co-residence among young adults," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 225-236.
    12. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Dongshin Kim & Youngme Seo & Julia Freybote, 2021. "Urbanity, Financial Crisis and the Timing of Homebuying Decisions by Young Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 481-507, May.
    14. Andrejs Skaburskis, 1996. "Race and Tenure in Toronto," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 223-252, March.
    15. Yilan Xu, 2020. "Foreclosed American Dream? Parental Foreclosure and Young Adult Children’s Homeownership," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 458-471, September.
    16. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1994. "Housing and Saving in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 191-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Durba Chakrabarty & Michael J. Osei & John V. Winters & Danyang Zhao, 2019. "Which immigrant and minority homeownership rates are gaining ground in the US?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 273-297, April.
    18. Hochgürtel, S. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "The Relation Between Financial and Housing Wealth of Dutch Households," Other publications TiSEM db5f1307-aa5a-4a4b-bec2-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Green, Richard K. & Lee, Hyojung, 2016. "Age, demographics, and the demand for housing, revisited," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 86-98.
    20. Oberg, Phillip Michael, 2017. "The housing bubble and the evolution of the homeownership gap," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 25-35.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Homeownership; Cohorts; Millennials; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:47:y:2020:i:c:s1051137718300445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.