[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/luk/wpaper/17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What happens to household formation in a recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Gary D. Painter
  • Kwan Ok Lee
Abstract
The factors that influence housing demand have been well studied. Most studies focus on a household's socioeconomic status, and lifecycle considerations. Other studies focus on the external environment determined by housing market and economic conditions. However, very few studies have focused on how economic conditions affect the lifecycle of potential households directly. In particular, because the decision to form a household is influenced by economic conditions, potential households may choose to delay entry into the housing market, and remain living with one's parents during times of economic hardship. Other households may choose to share housing costs by combining households. We find that increases in the unemployment rate and the presence of recessions reduce the rate of household formation. Simulations suggest that these declines are substantively important. For example, in a recession, the likelihood that a young adult will form an independent household falls by 1 to 3 percentage points depending on the age of the person. By way of comparison, if an individual is unemployed, the likelihood of leaving the parental home is up to 11 percentage points lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary D. Painter & Kwan Ok Lee, 2011. "What happens to household formation in a recession?," Working Paper 17, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    • Handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://lusk.usc.edu/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2011_1007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johan Surkyn & Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004. "Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(3), pages 45-86.
    2. Goodman, Allen C., 1988. "An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 327-353, May.
    3. Mike Murphy & Duolao Wang, 1998. "Family and sociodemographic influences on patterns of leaving home in Postwar Britain," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(3), pages 293-305, August.
    4. Francesco Billari & Aart Liefbroer, 2007. "Should i stay or should i go? The impact of age norms on leaving home," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 181-198, February.
    5. Stephan Klasen & Ingrid Woolard, 2009. "Surviving Unemployment Without State Support: Unemployment and Household Formation in South Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-51, January.
    6. Green, Richard K. & White, Michelle J., 1997. "Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-461, May.
    7. Painter, Gary, 2000. "Tenure Choice with Sample Selection: Differences among Alternative Samples," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 197-213, September.
    8. Lawrence D. Jones, 1989. "Current Wealth and Tenure Choice," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 17-40, March.
    9. Gary Painter, 2000. "Tenure Choice with Sample Selection: A Note on the Differences among Alternative Samples," Working Paper 8647, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    10. Richard Johnson & Julie DaVanzo, 1998. "Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 97-114, February.
    11. Frances Goldscheider & Julie DaVanzo, 1989. "Pathways to Independent Living in Early Adulthood: Marriage, Semiautonomy, and Premarital Residential Independence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 597-614, November.
    12. Haurin, Donald R & Hendershott, Patric H & Kim, Dongwook, 1993. "The Impact of Real Rents and Wages on Household Formation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 284-293, May.
    13. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402, December.
    14. Leslie Whittington & H. Elizabeth Peters, 1996. "Economic incentives for financial and residential independence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(1), pages 82-97, February.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:64:y:1997:i:256:p:627-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Juster, F. Thomas & Smith, James P. & Stafford, Frank, 1999. "The measurement and structure of household wealth," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 253-275, June.
    17. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    18. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    19. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Pau Baizán Munoz, 2001. "Leaving home in Europe: the experience of cohorts born around 1960," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Ermisch, John, 1999. "Prices, Parents, and Young People's Household Formation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 47-71, January.
    21. Roger Avery & Frances Goldscheider & Alden Speare, 1992. "Feathered nest/gilded cage: Parental income and leaving home in the transition to adulthood," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(3), pages 375-388, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josep Raya & Jaume Garcia, 2012. "Which Are the Real Determinants of Tenure? A Comparative Analysis of Different Models of the Tenure Choice of a House," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(16), pages 3645-3662, December.
    2. Dietz, Robert D. & Haurin, Donald R., 2003. "The social and private micro-level consequences of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 401-450, November.
    3. Green, Richard K. & Vandell, Kerry D., 1999. "Giving households credit: How changes in the U.S. tax code could promote homeownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 419-444, July.
    4. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., 2008. "Leaving Home: What Economics Has to Say about the Living Arrangements of Young Australians," IZA Discussion Papers 3309, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Andrew, Mark & Haurin, Donald & Munasib, Abdul, 2006. "Explaining the route to owner-occupation: A transatlantic comparison," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 189-216, September.
    6. Isaac F. Megbolugbe & Peter D. Linneman, 1993. "Home Ownership," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 30(4-5), pages 659-682, May.
    7. Rogers, William H. & Winkler, Anne E., 2014. "How Did the Housing and Labor Market Crises Affect Young Adults' Living Arrangements?," IZA Discussion Papers 8568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Aslan Zorlu & Clara Mulder, 2011. "Ethnic Differences in Leaving Home: Timing and Pathways," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 49-72, February.
    9. Henrik Cronqvist & Florian Münkel & Stephan Siegel, 2014. "Genetics, Homeownership, and Home Location Choice," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 79-111, January.
    10. Glen Bramley & Tony Champion & Tania Fisher, 2006. "Exploring the Household Impacts of Migration in Britain Using Panel Survey Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 907-926.
    11. Clara Mulder & William A.V. Clark & Michael Wagner, 2002. "A comparative analysis of leaving home in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(17), pages 565-592.
    12. Jordan Matsudaira, 2016. "Economic conditions and the living arrangements of young adults: 1960 to 2011," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 167-195, January.
    13. Rogers, William H. & Winkler, Anne E., 2014. "How Did the Housing and Labor Market Crises Affect Young Adults' Living Arrangements?," IZA Discussion Papers 8568, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Adelaido García-Andrés & Jose N. Martinez & Ernesto Aguayo-Téllez, 2021. "Leaving the Nest or Living with Parents: Evidence from Mexico’s Young Adult Population," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 913-933, September.
    15. Aslan Zorlu & Ruben Gaalen, 2016. "Leaving Home and Destination of Early Nest Leavers: Ethnicity, Spaces and Prices," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 267-291, May.
    16. L. Jide Iwarere & John E. Williams, 1991. "A Micro-Market Analysis of Tenure Choice Using the Logit Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 327-340.
    17. Francesco Billari & Aart Liefbroer, 2007. "Should i stay or should i go? The impact of age norms on leaving home," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 181-198, February.
    18. Jordan D. Matsudaira, 2016. "Economic conditions and the living arrangements of young adults: 1960 to 2011," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 167-195, January.
    19. Clara H. Mulder & Michael Wagner, 2001. "The Connections between Family Formation and First-time Home Ownership in the Context of West Germany and the Netherlands," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 137-164, June.
    20. Justo Manrique & Kalu Ojah, 2003. "The demand for housing in Spain: an endogenous switching regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 323-336.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; recession; economic conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Steins (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lcuscus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.