[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecag/v24y2023ics2212828x22000573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Miles, David
Abstract
This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, David, 2023. "Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x22000573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100425
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X22000573
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeoa.2022.100425?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    4. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mauro Pisu & Barbara Pels & Novella Bottini, 2015. "Improving infrastructure in the United Kingdom," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1244, OECD Publishing.
    7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Henriksen, Espen & Nusbaum, Charlie, 2024. "Demographic obstacles to European growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    9. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    10. David Miles & Victoria Monro, 2021. "UK house prices and three decades of decline in the risk-free real interest rate [‘Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(108), pages 627-684.
    11. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olimjon Saidmamatov & Yuldoshboy Sobirov & Sardorbek Makhmudov & Peter Marty & Shahnoza Yusupova & Ergash Ibadullaev & Dilnavoz Toshnazarova, 2024. "Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Jaimes, Richard & Westerhout, Ed, 2023. "Optimal policies in an ageing society," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Delventhal, Matthew J. & Guner, Nezih, 2021. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 16708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    3. Spataro, Luca & Fanti, Luciano & Pacini, Pier Mario, 2019. "Saving, fertility and public policy in an overlapping generations small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 16-29.
    4. Joel M. Guttman & Avi Tillman, 2017. "Land ownership, the subsistence constraint, and the demographic transition," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 1017-1036, September.
    5. Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura, 2022. "Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 1037-1069, July.
    6. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    7. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2021. "Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(4), pages 639-659, August.
    8. Tamotsu Nakamura, 2018. "Solow meets Stone–Geary: Technological progress and the demographic transition," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 768-790, November.
    9. Frederic Tournemaine & Pongsak Luangaram, 2012. "R&D, human capital, fertility, and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 923-953, July.
    10. Nils-Petter Lagerlof, 2002. "Sex, Equality, and Growth (in that order)," GE, Growth, Math methods 0212001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2006. "Fertility, Money Holdings, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine," Working Paper 296, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Mar 2008.
    12. Sylwia Zajączkowska-Jakimiak, 2006. "Wiedza techniczna i kapitał ludzki w teorii wzrostu gospodarczego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 47-69.
    13. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Liu, Xiying, 2018. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population and Fixed Resources," ISU General Staff Papers 201811010700001062, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Nguyen Manh Hung & Paul Makdissi, 2004. "Escaping the poverty trap in a developing rural economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 123-139, February.
    15. Juan Cordoba & Marla Ripoll & Xiying Liu, 2019. "Accounting for the International Quantity-Quality Trade-off," 2019 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2015. "Children, Dynastic Altruism and the Wealth of Nations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 774-791, October.
    18. Juan Carlos Córdoba & Marla Ripoll, 2016. "Intergenerational Transfers and the Fertility–Income Relationship," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 949-977, June.
    19. Juan Carlos Córdoba & Marla Ripoll, 2019. "The Elasticity of Intergenerational Substitution, Parental Altruism, and Fertility Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1935-1972.
    20. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais, 2017. "Gender Inequality and Economic Development: Fertility, Education and Norms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(334), pages 180-209, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; Fertility; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:24:y:2023:i:c:s2212828x22000573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-the-economics-of-ageing .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.