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Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space

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Abstract
The demographic transition -the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain, the technological leader. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a strong correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.

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  • Matthew J. Delventhal & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Nezih Guner, 2024. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," Working Papers wp2024_2402, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2402
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Gustavo Ventura & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Wealth of Working Nations," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Ricardo Marto, 2021. "The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 33, Economie d'Avant Garde.
    3. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2020. "Quality-adjusted Population Density," Working Papers 2020-25, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    5. Christian Alemán & Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig & Raül Santaeulà lia-Llopis, 2020. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-078, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Guldi, Melanie & Rahman, Ahmed S., 2022. "Little Divergence in America — Market Access and Demographic Transition in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 15215, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Carillo, Mario F., 2024. "Human capital composition and long-run economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    9. Steven Brakman & Tristan Kohl & Charles van Marewijk & Charles van Marrewijk, 2024. "DemoGravity: World Population and Trade in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 11262, CESifo.
    10. Bruno Conte, 2022. "Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9948, CESifo.
    11. Rédha Chaba & Michael T Dorsch & Victor Hiller & Paul Maarek, 2023. "Demographic and Political Transitions," Working Papers hal-04039762, HAL.
    12. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; skill-biased technological change; diffusion.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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