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Earnouts in mergers and acquisitions: A game-theoretic option pricing approach

Author

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  • Lukas, Elmar
  • Reuer, Jeffrey J.
  • Welling, Andreas
Abstract
This paper presents a valuation approach for merger and acquisition (M&A) deals employing contingent earnouts. It is argued that these transactions have option-like features, and the paper uses a game-theoretic option approach to model the value of such claims. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of uncertainty on the optimal timing of M&A using earnouts, and it also investigates the impact of uncertainty on the terms of the earnout. Optimal earnout and initial payment combinations are endogenously derived from the model, and testable hypotheses are developed. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a dynamic decision-making model of the invest-to-learn option generated upon investment in an acquisition. The paper also offers practical implications for the design of acquisitions employing earnouts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas, Elmar & Reuer, Jeffrey J. & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Earnouts in mergers and acquisitions: A game-theoretic option pricing approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 256-263.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:1:p:256-263
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.017
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    2. Lukas, Elmar & Mölls, Sascha & Welling, Andreas, 2016. "Venture capital, staged financing and optimal funding policies under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 305-313.
    3. Nils Patschureck & Friedrich Sommer & Arnt Wöhrmann, 2015. "Contract design as a risk management tool in corporate acquisitions: theoretical foundations and empirical evidence," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 279-316, October.
    4. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Adra, Samer, 2016. "The earnout structure matters: Takeover premia and acquirer gains in earnout financed M&As," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 283-294.
    5. Michi Nishihara, 2016. "Selling out or going public? A real options signaling approach," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-28, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Ding, Shusheng & Du, Min & Cui, Tianxiang & Zhang, Yongmin & Duygun, Meryem, 2024. "Impact of board diversity on Chinese firms’ cross-border M&A performance: An artificial intelligence approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1321-1335.
    8. Nishihara, Michi, 2023. "Target-initiated takeover with search frictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1480-1497.
    9. Gada, Viswa Prasad & Goyal, Lakshmi & Popli, Manish, 2021. "Earnouts in M&A deal structuring: The impact of CEO prevention focus," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(1).
    10. Tumellano Sebehela, 2017. "Game Options," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2014. "Optimal exercise of jointly held real options: A Nash bargaining approach with value diversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 565-578.
    12. Leonidas G. Barbopoulos & Jo Danbolt, 2021. "The real effects of earnout contracts in M&As," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 607-639, September.
    13. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Lenos Trigeorgis & Jeffrey J. Reuer, 2017. "Real options theory in strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 42-63, January.
    14. Michi NISHIHARA, 2021. "How should a startup respond to acquirers? A real options analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 20-24, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Morreale, Azzurra & Robba, Serena & Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Roma, Paolo, 2017. "A real options game of alliance timing decisions in biopharmaceutical research and development," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1189-1202.
    16. Nishihara, Michi, 2017. "Selling out or going public? A real options signaling approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 146-152.
    17. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    18. Elnahas, Ahmed M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Ismail, Ghada M., 2017. "Religion and mergers and acquisitions contracting: The case of earnout agreements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 221-246.
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    20. Avinadav, Tal & Chernonog, Tatyana & Perlman, Yael, 2017. "Mergers and acquisitions between risk-averse parties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 926-934.
    21. E. Lukas & C. Heimann, 2014. "Technological-induced information asymmetry, M&As and earnouts: stock market evidence from Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 481-493, April.

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