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Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria

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  • Calvet, Laurent E.
  • Czellar, Veronika
Abstract
This paper develops an indirect inference (Gourieroux et al., 1993; Smith, 1993) estimation method for a large class of dynamic equilibria. Our approach consists of constructing econometrically tractable auxiliary equilibria, obtained by simplifying the economic primitives of the structural equilibrium model, via which estimation can proceed. We use this approach to develop an accurate estimator for the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron (2004). We demonstrate the method in Monte Carlo simulations and implement it on U.S. data. We also illustrate the good performance of the proposed methodology on an equilibrium model with investor learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:185:y:2015:i:2:p:343-358
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.11.003
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    2. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFR Working Papers 17-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    3. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    4. Gael M. Martin & Brendan P.M. McCabe & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Christian P. Robert, 2016. "Auxiliary Likelihood-Based Approximate Bayesian Computation in State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 09/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Forneron, Jean-Jacques, 2024. "Detecting identification failure in moment condition models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    6. Czellar, Veronika & Frazier, David T. & Renault, Eric, 2022. "Approximate maximum likelihood for complex structural models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 432-456.
    7. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2018. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 6-33.
    8. Lee, Minjoon, 2023. "Portfolio allocation over the life cycle with multiple late-in-life saving motives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Jules Tinang & Nour Meddahi, 2016. "GMM estimation of the Long Run Risks model," 2016 Meeting Papers 1107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Veronika Czellar & David T. Frazier & Eric Renault, 2020. "Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models," Papers 2006.10245, arXiv.org.
    11. David T. Frazier & Eric Renault, 2016. "Indirect Inference With(Out) Constraints," Papers 1607.06163, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
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    13. Czellar, Veronika & Frazier, David T. & Renault, Eric, 2021. "Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1337, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFS Working Paper Series 572, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hidden Markov model; Long-run risk; Learning; Value at risk; Indirect inference; Particle filters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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