[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v75y2022icp396-411.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit default risk in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from a GARCH option pricing model

Author

Listed:
  • Dibooglu, Sel
  • Cevik, Emrah I.
  • Tamimi, Hussein A. Hassan Al
Abstract
An important question in banking is whether restrictions placed on Islamic banks make them more resilient to financial market turmoil and less prone to failure than conventional banks. We evaluate this claim by estimating credit default risk measures for a sample of conventional and Islamic banks using a GARCH option pricing model. Using a daily data set that is better suited for the time variation in volatility, we calculate distance to default measures to evaluate credit risk of Conventional Banks (CBs) and Islamic banks (IBs). We find higher default risk measures for IBs than CBs in general except during the Global Financial Crisis. This result holds true after controlling for bank and country specific variables in that IBs seem to have significantly lower default risk during the Global Financial Crisis and higher default risk thereafter. Consequently, while restrictions on risk taking is advantageous in financial turmoil episodes, the same restrictions expose IBs to risks in normal times. Finally, the credit risk of CBs and IBs is negatively affected by the oil crisis in 2014–2015 and the Covid-19 global pandemic. While there is no significant difference between the effects of the oil crisis on IBs versus CBs, the recent Covid-19 pandemic seems to have worsened the credit risk of IBs compared to CBs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah I. & Tamimi, Hussein A. Hassan Al, 2022. "Credit default risk in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from a GARCH option pricing model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 396-411.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:75:y:2022:i:c:p:396-411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592622000923
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2022.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2019. "A survey of Islamic banking and finance literature: Issues, challenges and future directions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 484-496.
    2. Pejman Abedifar & Philip Molyneux & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Risk in Islamic Banking," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(6), pages 2035-2096.
    3. Hassan, M. Kabir & Khan, Ashraf & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2019. "Liquidity risk, credit risk and stability in Islamic and conventional banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 17-31.
    4. Moazzam Farooq & Sajjad Zaheer, 2015. "Are Islamic Banks More Resilient during Financial Panics?," IMF Working Papers 2015/041, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Martin Čihák & Heiko Hesse, 2010. "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 95-113, December.
    6. Saeed, Momna & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2016. "Examining the relationship between default risk and efficiency in Islamic and conventional banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 127-154.
    7. Safiullah, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2018. "Risk in Islamic banking and corporate governance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 129-149.
    8. Imam, Patrick & Kpodar, Kangni, 2016. "Islamic banking: Good for growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 387-401.
    9. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Bank default indicators with volatility clustering," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 127-151, March.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    11. Baele, Lieven & Farooq, Moazzam & Ongena, Steven, 2014. "Of religion and redemption: Evidence from default on Islamic loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 141-159.
    12. E. H. Ergeç & B. G. Arslan, 2013. "Impact of interest rates on Islamic and conventional banks: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2381-2388, June.
    13. Song, Lingfeng & Zhang, Yinsainan, 2021. "Banking network structure and transnational systemic risk contagion—The case of the European Union," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    14. Fakhfekh, Mohamed & Hachicha, Nejib & Jawadi, Fredj & Selmi, Nadhem & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim, 2016. "Measuring volatility persistence for conventional and Islamic banks: An FI-EGARCH approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 84-99.
    15. Alandejani, Maha & Kutan, Ali M. & Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Do Islamic banks fail more than conventional banks?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 135-155.
    16. Amin, Kaushik I & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Option Valuation with Systematic Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 881-910, July.
    17. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    19. Mohammad Bitar & Sami Ben Naceur & Rym Ayadi & Thomas Walker, 2021. "Basel Compliance and Financial Stability: Evidence from Islamic Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 81-134, August.
    20. Alexakis, Christos & Izzeldin, Marwan & Johnes, Jill & Pappas, Vasileios, 2019. "Performance and productivity in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    21. Alqahtani, Faisal & Mayes, David G., 2018. "Financial stability of Islamic banking and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 346-360.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    23. Olson, Dennis & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "Convergence in bank performance for commercial and Islamic banks during and after the Global Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 71-87.
    24. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
    25. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi, 2011. "Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, March.
    26. Kabir, Md. Nurul & Worthington, Andrew & Gupta, Rakesh, 2015. "Comparative credit risk in Islamic and conventional bank," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 327-353.
    27. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.
    28. Wang, Xingchun, 2020. "Valuation of Asian options with default risk under GARCH models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 27-40.
    29. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    30. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    31. Feryel Ouerghi, 2014. "Are Islamic Banks More Resilient To Global Financial Crisis Than Conventional Banks?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 941-955.
    32. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    33. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2018. "Bank lending, deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 31-47.
    34. Hassan, M. Kabir & Aliyu, Sirajo, 2018. "A contemporary survey of islamic banking literature," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 12-43.
    35. Andreas Jobst & Mr. Juan Sole, 2020. "The Nature of Islamic Banking and Solvency Stress Testing - Conceptual Considerations," IMF Working Papers 2020/156, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Izzeldin, Marwan & Johnes, Jill & Ongena, Steven & Pappas, Vasileios & Tsionas, Mike, 2021. "Efficiency convergence in Islamic and conventional banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    37. Akhter, Selim & Daly, Kevin, 2017. "Contagion risk for Australian banks from global systemically important banks: Evidence from extreme events," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-205.
    38. Sorwar, Ghulam & Pappas, Vasileios & Pereira, John & Nurullah, Mohamed, 2016. "To debt or not to debt: Are Islamic banks less risky than conventional banks?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 113-126.
    39. Daher, Hassan & Masih, Mansur & Ibrahim, Mansor, 2015. "The unique risk exposures of Islamic banks’ capital buffers: A dynamic panel data analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 36-52.
    40. Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
    41. Alexakis, Christos & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina, 2021. "From dotcom to Covid-19: A convergence analysis of Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    42. Moazzam Farooq & Sajjad Zaheer, 2015. "Are Islamic Banks More Resilient During Financial Panics?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 101-124, February.
    43. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    44. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    45. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
    47. Maher Hasan & Jemma Dridi, 2011. "The Effects Of The Global Crisis On Islamic And Conventional Banks: A Comparative Study," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 163-200.
    48. Câmara, António & Popova, Ivilina & Simkins, Betty, 2012. "A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 717-732.
    49. Risfandy, Tastaftiyan & Tarazi, Amine & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2022. "Competition in dual markets: Implications for banking system stability," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    50. Feryel OUERGHI, 2014. "Are Islamic Banks More Resilient To Global Financial Crisis Than Conventional Banks?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 941-955, July.
    51. Doumpos, Michael & Hasan, Iftekhar & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2017. "Bank overall financial strength: Islamic versus conventional banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 513-523.
    52. Khan, Mohammad Azeem & Ahmad, Wasim, 2022. "Fresh evidence on the relationship between market power and default risk of Indian banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    53. Abdul-Rahman, Aisyah & Sulaiman, Ahmad Azam & Mohd Said, Noor Latifah Hanim, 2018. "Does financing structure affects bank liquidity risk?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 26-39.
    54. Beck, Thorsten & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2013. "Islamic vs. conventional banking: Business model, efficiency and stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 433-447.
    55. Louhichi, Awatef & Louati, Salma & Boujelbene, Younes, 2020. "The regulations–risk taking nexus under competitive pressure: What about the Islamic banking system?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    56. Azmi, Wajahat & Ali, Mohsin & Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2019. "Intricacies of competition, stability, and diversification: Evidence from dual banking economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 111-126.
    57. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    58. M. Kabir Hassan & Mehmet Saraç & Ashraf Khan (ed.), 2021. "Islamic Finance and Sustainable Development," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-76016-8, December.
    59. M. Kabir Hassan & Ashraf Khan & Andrea Paltrinieri, 2021. "Islamic Finance: A Literature Review," Springer Books, in: M. Kabir Hassan & Mehmet Saraç & Ashraf Khan (ed.), Islamic Finance and Sustainable Development, chapter 0, pages 77-106, Springer.
    60. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    61. Faridah Najuna Misman & M. Ishaq Bhatti, 2020. "The Determinants of Credit Risk: An Evidence from ASEAN and GCC Islamic Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, May.
    62. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, M. Kabir & Aliyu, Sirajo, 2018. "A contemporary survey of islamic banking literature," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 12-43.
    2. Khan, Abdullah & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Ali, Mohsin & Haroon, Omair, 2021. "A survey of Islamic finance research – Influences and influencers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. M. Kabir Hassan & Md Nurul Islam Sohel & Tonmoy Choudhury & Mamunur Rashid, 2024. "A systematic literature review of risks in Islamic banking system: research agenda and future research directions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-29, February.
    4. Risfandy, Tastaftiyan & Tarazi, Amine & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2022. "Competition in dual markets: Implications for banking system stability," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Izzeldin, Marwan & Johnes, Jill & Ongena, Steven & Pappas, Vasileios & Tsionas, Mike, 2021. "Efficiency convergence in Islamic and conventional banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Boubakri, Narjess & Chen, Ruiyuan & Guedhami, Omrane & Li, Xinming, 2019. "The Stock Liquidity of Banks: A Comparison between Islamic and Conventional Banks in Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 210-224.
    7. Faten Ben Bouheni & Hassan Obeid & Elena Margarint, 2022. "Nonperforming loan of European Islamic banks over the economic cycle," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 773-808, June.
    8. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    9. Alexakis, Christos & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina, 2021. "From dotcom to Covid-19: A convergence analysis of Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Disli, Mustafa, 2019. "Small business lending and credit risk: Granger causality evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 245-255.
    11. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Maghyereh, Aktham & Hassan, Abul & Molyneux, Phillip, 2020. "Political risk and bank stability in the Middle East and North Africa region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2019. "A survey of Islamic banking and finance literature: Issues, challenges and future directions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 484-496.
    13. Boulanouar, Zakaria & Alqahtani, Faisal & Hamdi, Besma, 2021. "Bank ownership, institutional quality and financial stability: evidence from the GCC region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Mohamed Ben Mimoun, 2021. "Stability of Conventional and Islamic banks, externalities and resilience to crises: evidences from comprehensive Saudi banks' time-series data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1165-1179.
    15. Mohamed, Toka S. & Elgammal, Mohammed M., 2023. "Credit risk in Islamic microfinance institutions: The role of women, groups, and rural borrowers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik, 2021. "Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1373-1392, November.
    17. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2018. "Bank lending, deposits and risk-taking in times of crisis: A panel analysis of Islamic and conventional banks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 31-47.
    18. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    19. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Bank default indicators with volatility clustering," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 127-151, March.
    20. Khan, Ashraf & Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Bahoo, Salman, 2021. "Trade, financial openness and dual banking economies: Evidence from GCC Region," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank default risk; Financial intermediation; Islamic banking; GARCH option pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:75:y:2022:i:c:p:396-411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.