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Tight oil market dynamics: Benchmarks, breakeven points, and inelasticities

Author

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  • Kleinberg, R.L.
  • Paltsev, S.
  • Ebinger, C.K.E.
  • Hobbs, D.A.
  • Boersma, T.
Abstract
When comparing oil and gas projects - their relative attractiveness, robustness, and contribution to markets - various dollar per barrel benchmarks are quoted in the literature and in public debates. Among these benchmarks are a variety of breakeven points (also called breakeven costs or breakeven prices), widely used to predict producer responses to market conditions. These analyses have not proved reliable because (1) there has been no broadly accepted agreement on the definitions of breakeven points, (2) there are various breakeven points (and other benchmarks) each of which is applicable only at a certain stage of the development of a resource, and (3) each breakeven point is considerably more dynamic than many observers anticipated, changing over time in response to internal and external drivers. In this paper we propose standardized definitions of each breakeven point, showing which elements of field and well development are included in each. We clarify the purpose of each breakeven point and specify at which stage of the development cycle the use of each becomes appropriate. We discuss in general terms the geological, geographical, product quality, and exchange rate factors that affect breakeven points. We describe other factors that contribute to tight oil market dynamics, including factors that accelerate the growth and retard the decline of production; technological and legal influences on the behavior of market participants; and infrastructure, labor, and financial inelasticities. The role of tight oil in short-term and medium-term oil market stability is discussed. Finally, we explore the implications of a broader, more rigorous, and more consistent application of the breakeven point concept, taking into account the inelasticities that accompany it.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleinberg, R.L. & Paltsev, S. & Ebinger, C.K.E. & Hobbs, D.A. & Boersma, T., 2018. "Tight oil market dynamics: Benchmarks, breakeven points, and inelasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 70-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:70-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.11.018
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    Cited by:

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    2. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting selected energy commodities prices with Bayesian dynamic finite mixtures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    4. O. V. Zhdaneev & P. Yu. Sorokin, 2021. "On the Support of the Oilfield Service in the Russian Federation," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 571-578, September.
    5. Evan Dudley & Niclas Andrén & Håkan Jankensgård, 2022. "How do firms hedge in financial distress?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1324-1351, July.
    6. Nathan S Balke & Xin Jin & Mine Yücel, 2024. "The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(662), pages 2252-2289.
    7. Ehouman, Yao Axel, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks' stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 198-217.
    8. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis & Panagiotis Tzouvanas, 2023. "Evaluating robust determinants of the WTI/Brent oil price differential: A dynamic model averaging analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 807-825, June.
    9. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2020. "Tight oil, real WTI prices and U.S. stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Chen, Yan, 2021. "Evaluating the influence of energy prices on tight oil supply with implications on the impacts of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Sharma, Shahil & Rodriguez, Ivan, 2019. "The diminishing hedging role of crude oil: Evidence from time varying financialization," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    13. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks’ stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Post-Print hal-02960571, HAL.
    14. Shakya, Shishir & Li, Bingxin & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2022. "Shale revolution, oil and gas prices, and drilling activities in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Chen, Yan & Xu, Jintao, 2018. "The Shale Gas Boom in the US: Productivity Shocks and Price Responsiveness," EfD Discussion Paper 18-17, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    16. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
    17. Tania Itzel Serrano-Arévalo & Javier Tovar-Facio & José María Ponce-Ortega, 2023. "Optimal Incorporation of Intermittent Renewable Energy Storage Units and Green Hydrogen Production in the Electrical Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-25, March.
    18. Wachtmeister, Henrik & Henke, Petter & Höök, Mikael, 2018. "Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 138-153.
    19. Mugabe, Douglas & Elbakidze, Levan & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara, 2020. "Investments of publicly traded versus privately held firms: evidence from stranded growth options in the U.S. shale gas industry," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304361, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tight oil; Shale; Market dynamics; Breakeven;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

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