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Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R.
Abstract
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from a rising oil prices than that in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. While the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:669-675
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.005
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    8. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
    9. Sarwar, Suleman & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Waheed, Rida & Dastgerdi, Hamidreza Ghorbani, 2019. "Volatility spillovers and hedging: Evidence from Asian oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-488.
    10. Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby, 2017. "The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 219-227.
    11. Turdyeva, Natalia, 2019. "Effects of a terms of trade shock on the Russian economy," Conference papers 333094, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Jean Andrei & Mihai Mieila & Gheorghe H. Popescu & Elvira Nica & Manole Cristina, 2016. "The Impact and Determinants of Environmental Taxation on Economic Growth Communities in Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.
    13. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhutto, Niaz Ahmed & Kalhoro, Muhammad Ramzan, 2019. "Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 423-432.
    14. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
    15. Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Waheed, Rida, 2017. "Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 9-18.
    16. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    17. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "The dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Szulczyk, Kenneth R. & Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi & Zhang, Changyong, 2021. "Environmental ramifications and economic viability of bioethanol production in Malaysia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 780-788.
    19. Qu, Qiushi & Wang, Limao & Cao, Zhi & Zhong, Shuai & Mou, Chufu & Sun, Yanzhi & Xiong, Chenran, 2019. "Unfolding the price effects of non-ferrous industry chain on economic development: A case study of Yunnan province," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-20.
    20. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    21. Dong, Baomin & Ma, Xili & Wang, Ningjing & Wei, Weixian, 2020. "Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China's regional economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    22. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    23. Gbadebo Oladosu, 2015. "Oil market developments and the global economy from a general equilibrium perspective," EcoMod2015 8405, EcoMod.
    24. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    25. Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2016. "Sino-Venezuelan oil-for-loan deal – the Chinese strategic gamble?#," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 817-822.

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    Keywords

    Oil price; CGE model; Global economy; International trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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