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U.S. trade indicators and epidemics: Lessons from the 2003 SARS outbreak

Author

Listed:
  • Deliana Kostova

    (Division of Global Health Protection, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Walter Ochieng

    (Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Rajeev Cherukupalli

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • John T Redd

    (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services)

Abstract
We revisited the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-2003) and its role in two U.S. indicators – U.S. merchandise exports to countries in the East Asia Pacific (EAP) region and domestic U.S. jobs supported by these exports. We employed a quasi-experimental approach where SARS-2003 average treatment effects were derived from comparing before-2003 and after-2003 differences in indicator trends for EAP countries that experienced the bulk of 2003 epidemic transmission (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) and EAP countries that did not, controlling for observed and unobserved country heterogeneity that might concurrently determine trends in trade. The SARS-2003 outbreak was associated with a USD 29 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to the group of high-burden SARS countries, with a corresponding relative loss of 61,200 U.S. jobs. These effects were largely explained by a slowdown in exports from the U.S. manufacturing sector (USD 24.9 billion). No significant post-2003 effects were estimated for either exports or jobs, indicating a relatively quick rebound.

Suggested Citation

  • Deliana Kostova & Walter Ochieng & Rajeev Cherukupalli & John T Redd, 2020. "U.S. trade indicators and epidemics: Lessons from the 2003 SARS outbreak," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2610-2618.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00932
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2020/Volume40/EB-20-V40-I4-P226.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Beutels & W. J. Edmunds & R. D. Smith, 2008. "Partially wrong? Partial equilibrium and the economic analysis of public health emergencies of international concern," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1317-1322.
    2. Deliana Kostova & Cynthia H. Cassell & John T. Redd & Desmond E. Williams & Tushar Singh & Lise D. Martel & Rebecca E. Bunnell, 2019. "Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1248-1261, November.
    3. Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
    4. P. Beutels & W. J. Edmunds & R. D. Smith, 2008. "Partially wrong? Partial equilibrium and the economic analysis of public health emergencies of international concern," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1317-1322, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports; epidemics; global health security; SARS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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