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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Stockholms Universitet)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Hertie School of Governance)

Abstract
Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(16), pages 461-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:16
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven Martin, 2000. "Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(4), pages 523-533, November.
    2. Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
    3. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipatory analysis; fertility by educational attainment;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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