[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rpstxx/v68y2014i2p151-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem
Abstract
In studies of the fertility of migrants in which the data are confined to the migrants only, estimation bias will normally appear in comparisons of childbearing before and after migration. The same issue arises in studies of union formation before and after first birth, marriage formation before and after home purchase, and in any other comparison of behaviour before and after an index event if one confines the study only to those who have experienced the index event. It is normally better to avoid analysis of behaviour before the index event because such analysis actually conditions on the later arrival of the index event. In this paper, we provide graphical and mathematical representations of this problem and show how one can get a meaningful (unconditional) comparison of behaviour before and after the index event provided the data contain enough information for both sub-periods. Otherwise, the analyst should refrain from making a comparison of this nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem, 2014. "The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(2), pages 151-159, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:151-159
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.843019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.843019
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00324728.2013.843019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Courgeau, Daniel & Lelievre, Eva, 1993. "Event History Analysis in Demography," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287384.
    2. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(16), pages 461-484.
    3. Hill Kulu & Nadja Milewski, 2007. "Family change and migration in the life course," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(19), pages 567-590.
    4. Jan M. Hoem & Lesia Nedoluzhko, 2008. "Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Hill Kulu, 2005. "Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 51-87, March.
    6. Jan M. Hoem & Lesia Nedoluzhko, 2008. "Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(21), pages 611-628.
    7. repec:cai:poeine:pope_703_0351 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Gunnar Andersson, 2007. "Migration and first-time parenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(25), pages 741-774.
    9. Clara H. Mulder & Michael Wagner, 1998. "First-time Home-ownership in the Family Life Course: A West German-Dutch Comparison," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 687-713, April.
    10. Laura E. Hill & Hans P. Johnson, 2004. "Fertility Changes Among Immigrants: Generations, Neighborhoods, and Personal Characteristics," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(3), pages 811-827, September.
    11. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Hill Kulu & Andres Vikat, 2007. "Fertility differences by housing type," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(26), pages 775-802.
    13. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(17), pages 485-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Livia Ortensi, 2015. "Engendering the fertility-migration nexus: The role of women's migratory patterns in the analysis of fertility after migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(53), pages 1435-1468.
    2. Roberto Impicciatore & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno, 2020. "Migrants’ Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(4), pages 799-825, September.
    3. James Robards & Ann Berrington, 2016. "The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(36), pages 1037-1052.
    4. Katharina Wolf, 2016. "Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 731-759, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan M. Hoem, 2013. "The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Roberto Impicciatore & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno, 2020. "Migrants’ Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(4), pages 799-825, September.
    3. Nadja Milewski, 2010. "Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births? [Fécondité des immigrées en Allemagne de l’Ouest: existe-t-il un effet de la socializ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 297-323, August.
    4. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975.
    5. Anja Vatterrott, 2015. "Socialisation or Institutional Context: What Determines the First and Second Birth Behaviour of East–West German Migrants?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 383-415, October.
    6. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Victor Agadjanian, 2010. "Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: Exploring interdependencies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(7), pages 159-188.
    7. Hill Kulu & Fiona Steele, 2013. "Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1687-1714, October.
    8. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Victor Agadjanian, 2009. "Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: exploring interdependencies," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Liili Abuladze & Luule Sakkeus & Sergei Zakharov, 2017. "Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(41), pages 1209-1254.
    10. Studer, Matthias & Struffolino, Emanuela & Fasang, Anette Eva, 2018. "Estimating the Relationship between Time-varying Covariates and Trajectories: The Sequence Analysis Multistate Model Procedure," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 103-135.
    11. Ben Wilson, 2020. "Understanding How Immigrant Fertility Differentials Vary over the Reproductive Life Course," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 465-498, July.
    12. Júlia Mikolai & Hill Kulu, 2018. "Divorce, Separation, and Housing Changes: A Multiprocess Analysis of Longitudinal Data from England and Wales," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 83-106, February.
    13. Wanli Nie, 2020. "The effect of spousal separation and reunification on fertility: Chinese internal and international migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(29), pages 851-888.
    14. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176.
    15. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    16. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Tiit Tammaru, 2023. "Neighbourhoods and Workplaces: Are They Related to the Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants? A Register-Based Study of Finland, 1999–2014," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 209-231, March.
    17. Doreen Huschek & Helga de Valk & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2010. "Timing of first union among second-generation Turks in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(16), pages 473-504.
    18. Marika Jalovaara & Gunnar Andersson, 2018. "Disparities in Children’s Family Experiences by Mother’s Socioeconomic Status: The Case of Finland," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(5), pages 751-768, October.
    19. Mathias Lerch, 2013. "Fertility Decline During Albania’s Societal Crisis and its Subsequent Consolidation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 195-220, May.
    20. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Diverse Effects of Women’s Employment on Fertility: Insights From Italy and Poland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 273-302, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:151-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rpst20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.