(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v15y2011i3p387-402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael E. de Hoyos
  • Denis Medvedev
Abstract
The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially, with nearly all of the increase in extreme poverty occurring in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael E. de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2011. "Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 387-402, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:15:y:2011:i:3:p:387-402
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2011.00615.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00615.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/j.1467-9361.2011.00615.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    2. Gero Carletto & Katia Covarrubias & Benjamin Davis & Marika Krausova & Kostas Stamoulis & Paul Winters & Alberto Zezza, 2007. "Rural income generating activities in developing countries: re-assessing the evidence," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 4(1), pages 146-193.
    3. Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2002. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(3), pages 397-423, December.
    4. Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil: The Impact of the Doha Round," Conference papers 331338, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    6. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
    7. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions," Conference papers 331764, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "Household welfare impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3040, The World Bank.
    9. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    10. Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 289-307, August.
    11. John Baffes & Bruce Gardner, 2003. "The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets under policy reforms in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 159-180.
    12. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
    13. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    14. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
    15. Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    2. Vu, Linh Hoang, 2012. "Poverty Impact Of The Food Crisis On Poverty In Cambodia," MPRA Paper 94799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank.
    4. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    5. Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael De Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.
    6. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    7. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie‐Hélène Hubert & Beyza Ural Marchand, 2019. "Food for fuel: The effect of the US biofuel mandate on poverty in India," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 1153-1193, July.
    8. Tefera, Nigussie, 2012. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126698, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    10. Zezza, Alberto & Davis, Benjamin & Azzarri, Carlo & Covarrubias, Katia & Tasciotti, Luca & Anríquez, Gustavo, 2008. "The impact of rising food prices on the poor," ESA Working Papers 289027, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    11. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2010. "The Global Food Crisis and Guatemala: What Crisis and for Whom?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1328-1339, September.
    12. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "Impacts Of Large Scale Expansion Of Biofuels On Global Poverty And Income Distribution," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91279, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    13. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    14. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
    15. Dessus, Sebastien, 2008. "The short and longer term potential welfare impact of global commodity inflation in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4760, The World Bank.
    16. Sami Bibi & Massa Coulibaly & John Cockburn & Luca Tiberti, 2009. "L'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires sur la pauvreté des enfants et les reponses politiques au Mali," Papers inwopa09/60, Innocenti Working Papers.
    17. Cudjoe, Godsway & Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2010. "Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission, consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 294-302, August.
    18. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.
    19. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 282-299, August.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0538 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ole Boysen, 2013. "High food prices and their implications for poverty in Uganda - From demand system estimation to simulation," EcoMod2013 5438, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:15:y:2011:i:3:p:387-402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.