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Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance

Author

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  • Devarajan, Shantayanan
  • Go, Delfin S.
  • Maliszewska, Maryla
  • Osorio-Rodarte, Israel
  • Timmer, Hans
Abstract
After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper “stress tests” African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:4:p:521-547
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.04.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    3. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    4. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    5. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22547.
    6. Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2015. "The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7483, The World Bank.
    7. Osorio Rodarte, Israel, 2016. "Modeling Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Increasing female participation and human capital in Turkey," Conference papers 332777, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    9. M. Shabri Abd. Majid & Sovia Dewi & Aliasuddin & Salina H. Kassim, 2019. "Does Financial Development Reduce Poverty? Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(3), pages 1019-1036, September.
    10. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go, Delfin S & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Global Migration Revisited: Short-term Pains, Long-term Gains, and the Potential for South-South Migration," Conference papers 332700, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Edward J. Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G. Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Working Papers 2016-07, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    12. Lakatos,Csilla & Maliszewska,Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Go,Delfin Sia, 2016. "China's slowdown and rebalancing: potential growth and poverty impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7666, The World Bank.
    13. World Bank, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, October 2013 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future," World Bank Publications - Reports 20237, The World Bank Group.
    14. Maliszewska,Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Nichanametla Ramasubbaiah,Rakesh Gupta, 2020. "Ex-Ante Evaluation of Sub-National Labor Market Impacts of Trade Reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9478, The World Bank.
    15. Ferrantino,Michael Joseph & Maliszewska,Maryla & Taran,Svitlana, 2020. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific : Estimated Effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9496, The World Bank.
    16. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    17. Edward J Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "Poverty, Welfare and Income Distribution Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(2), pages 172-200.
    18. von Arnim, Rudiger & Tröster, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia & Raza, Werner, 2018. "Commodity price shocks and the distribution of income in commodity-dependent least-developed countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 434-451.
    19. Shantayanan Devarajan & Delfin S. Go & Csilla Lakatos & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2021. "Traders' dilemma: Developing countries' response to trade wars," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 856-878, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Economic development; Africa; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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