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Transmission of a Resource Boom: The Case of Australia

Author

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  • Mardi Dungey
  • Renee Fry‐Mckibbin
  • Vladimir Volkov
Abstract
This paper presents evidence on the macroeconomic adjustment of a resource‐rich country to a resource boom using the effects of Chinese industrialization on Australia from 1988 to 2016. An SVAR model is specified, incorporating a proxy for Chinese resource demand and commodity prices to identify the effects of commodity supply and demand shocks on the Australian macroeconomy. We develop a multivariate historical decomposition to show how resource sector shocks lead the economy to deviate from a long‐run projection. The paper identifies four phases of the transmission of the resource boom before its conclusion in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry‐Mckibbin & Vladimir Volkov, 2020. "Transmission of a Resource Boom: The Case of Australia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 503-525, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:82:y:2020:i:3:p:503-525
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12352
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    3. Victor Pontines & Davaajargal Luvsannyam, 2023. "External Commodity Shocks and the Insulating Role of Fiscal Policy on Real Output: Evidence from a Commodity-Exporting Economy," Working Papers wp51, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
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    5. Zhang, Tong & Burke, Paul J., 2020. "The effect of fuel prices on traffic flows: Evidence from New South Wales," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 502-522.
    6. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    7. Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Potential Output in a Commodity‐Exporting Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 42-62, March.
    8. Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal, 2020. "Asymmetric transmission and effects of resource shocks: Case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 104641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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