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Modelling hydroclimatic uncertainty and short-run irrigator decision making: the Goulburn system

Author

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  • Marnie Griffith
  • Gary Codner
  • Erwin Weinmann
  • Sergei Schreider
Abstract
Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability ('allocations') and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water-scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

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  • Marnie Griffith & Gary Codner & Erwin Weinmann & Sergei Schreider, 2009. "Modelling hydroclimatic uncertainty and short-run irrigator decision making: the Goulburn system ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(4), pages 565-584, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:53:y:2009:i:4:p:565-584
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    4. R. Roozbahani & B. Abbasi & S. Schreider, 2015. "Optimal allocation of water to competing stakeholders in a shared watershed," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 657-676, June.
    5. R. Roozbahani & B. Abbasi & S. Schreider & J. Iversen, 2021. "Dam Location-Allocation under Multiple Hydrological Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 993-1009, February.
    6. Delorit, Justin D. & Parker, Dominic P. & Block, Paul J., 2019. "An agro-economic approach to framing perennial farm-scale water resources demand management for water rights markets," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 68-81.
    7. Daniel McInnes & Boris Miller & Gregory Miller & Sergei Schreider, 2020. "Towards Tensor Representation of Controlled Coupled Markov Chains," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Reza Roozbahani & Babak Abbasi & Sergei Schreider & Zahra Hosseinifard, 2020. "A basin-wide approach for water allocation and dams location-allocation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 287(1), pages 323-349, April.

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