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Determinantes de la Diversificación Exportadora: Enfoque Bayesiano

Author

Listed:
  • César Salinas Depaz
  • Wilder Pérez Condor
  • Ricardo Najarro Chuchón
Abstract
La diversificación exportadora brinda a las economías diversos beneficios como el fomento y estabilización del crecimiento económico mediante la reducción de la volatilidad de los ingresos por las exportaciones y el incremento de la productividad a través de externalidades positivas a nivel intra e inter sectorial. En este sentido, es relevante poder identificar qué posibilita la diversificación de las exportaciones; no obstante, ante un marco teórico disperso, esta identificación se convierte en una ardua tarea. Este documento mediante la metodología Bayesian Moving Average intenta descubrir qué factores idiosincráticos de cada país son relevantes para explicar una mayor diversificación exportadora en el largo plazo. Los resultados sugieren que seis elementos son los más importantes para la predicción de la diversificación de las exportaciones. Estos elementos son: i) renta de recursos naturales, ii) población, iii) formación bruta de capital (stock de capital), iv) enseñanza secundaria, v) crédito al sector privado y vi) capital humano. Estos resultados están en línea con los resultados obtenidos en la literatura.

Suggested Citation

  • César Salinas Depaz & Wilder Pérez Condor & Ricardo Najarro Chuchón, 2019. "Determinantes de la Diversificación Exportadora: Enfoque Bayesiano," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 1(02), pages 23-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:alp:revaef:02-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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