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Interlinka Terlinkage Of M Ge Of Macroeconomic Uncer Croeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence From Asean-5 Countries Panel Var

Author

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  • Rifai Afin

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract
This paper examines the interrelationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth, and growth uncertainty. We find a negative effect of output uncertainty on output growth and a positive effect of output growth on output uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on the inflation rate, suggesting that there is a stabilizing motive during high periods of high inflation, where the policy lowers inflation uncertainty to minimize the economic welfare costs of deflationary actions. However, inflation has a positive effect on inflation uncertainty suggesting that agents may devote more resources to inflation forecasting in a rising inflation environment, which reduces uncertainty. We also find a negative relation between inflation and growth, suggesting that a moderate trend of growth and inflation should be maintained to achieve desirable effects on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rifai Afin, 2023. "Interlinka Terlinkage Of M Ge Of Macroeconomic Uncer Croeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence From Asean-5 Countries Panel Var," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 39-68, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:26:y:2023:i:1b:p:39-68
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/1410-8046.2045
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Growth; Uncertainty; Panel EGARCH; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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