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Classical Decision Rules and Adaption to Climate Change

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  • Clarke, Harry
Abstract
One approach to rationalising policies for addressing potentially catastrophic climate change when such policies may prove unnecessary is to suppose the policies provide a form of social insurance even in the presence of pure uncertainty. Then, provided the policies are effective, such insurance can be justified as a precautionary or minimax response. Even if the policies are potentially ineffective however, intervention can be justified as an attempt to minimise the regret experienced by future generations. This reasoning extends to justify ‘all weather’ policies provided such policies always reduce policy costs. If, however, policy decisions provide ‘all weather’ benefits in only certain states of the world, this rationale breaks down. Minimising regret can establish a case for ‘mixed’ policy responses provided adopting a policy mix precludes the chance that intervention will fail altogether. Precautionary policies and policies which minimise regret are computed for a simple, dynamic, adaptive climate change planning problem and sufficient conditions for policy maker pessimism provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Harry, 2008. "Classical Decision Rules and Adaption to Climate Change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:161898
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.161898
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Clarke, 2007. "Conserving Biodiversity in the Face of Climate Change," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 157-170.
    2. Quiggin, John, 2005. "The Precautionary Principle in Environmental Policy and the Theory of Choice under Uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149847, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 2000. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 233-259, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2010. "A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 43-51, November.
    2. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Perry, Neil & Shankar, Sriram, 2017. "The State-contingent Approach to the Noah's Ark Problem," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-72.
    4. Todd Sanderson & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi‐Esfahani, 2009. "Testing Comparative Advantage in Australian Broadacre Agriculture Under Climate Change: Theoretical and Empirical Models," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(4), pages 346-354, December.
    5. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
    6. T. D. Pol & S. Gabbert & H.-P. Weikard & E. C. Ierland & E. M. T. Hendrix, 2017. "A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1087-1109, December.
    7. Thomas D. Pol & Ekko C. Ierland & Silke Gabbert, 2017. "Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 267-285, February.
    8. Harry Clarke, 2013. "Planning Urban Water Investments with an Uncertain Climate," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 426-439, December.

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