[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/kdijep/282014.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From miracle to mediocrity? Explaining the growth slowdown of the Korean economy

Author

Listed:
  • Kangand, Duyong
  • Park, Sungkeun
Abstract
To investigate the causes of Korea's growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-life-related choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea's high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea's growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea's experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Kangand, Duyong & Park, Sungkeun, 2023. "From miracle to mediocrity? Explaining the growth slowdown of the Korean economy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(4), pages 23-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kdijep:282014
    DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2023.45.4.23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/282014/1/1879724960.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.23895/kdijep.2023.45.4.23?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1282, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 72-76, May.
    5. Kingsley Davis, 1945. "The World Demographic Transition," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 237(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    7. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
    8. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Convergence and Modernization Revisited," NBER Working Papers 18295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    11. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," NBER Working Papers 9732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    13. Duernecker, Georg & Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2021. "The productivity growth slowdown and Kaldor’s growth facts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Gary Burtless, 2013. "The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-11, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarzyna Growiec & Jakub Growiec, 2016. "Bridging Social Capital and Individual Earnings: Evidence for an Inverted U," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 601-631, June.
    2. Felicia Ionescu, 2011. "Risky Human Capital and Alternative Bankruptcy Regimes for Student Loans," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 153-206.
    3. Harmon, Colm & Hogan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2003. "Dispersion in the economic return to schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 205-214, April.
    4. Carpio, Miguel Angel, 2011. "Do pension wealth, pension cost and the nature of pension system affect coverage? Evidence from a country where pay-as-you-go and funded systems coexist," MPRA Paper 34926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bram Wouterse & Karen Wiel & Marc Steeg, 2017. "Income Differences Between PhDs and Masters: Evidence from The Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(4), pages 439-461, December.
    6. Marc van der Steeg & Karen van der Wiel & Bram Wouterse, 2014. "Individual Returns to a PhD Education in the Netherlands: Income Differences between Masters and PhDs," CPB Discussion Paper 276, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Marc van der Steeg & Karen van der Wiel & Bram Wouterse, 2014. "Individual Returns to a PhD Education in the Netherlands: Income Differences between Masters and PhDs," CPB Discussion Paper 276.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Alan Manning & Joanna Swaffield, 2008. "The gender gap in early-career wage growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 983-1024, July.
    9. Muhammad Nauman Malik & Masood Sarwar Awan, 2016. "Analysing Econometric Bias and Non-linearity in Returns to Education of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 837-851.
    10. Henderson, Daniel J. & Polachek, Solomon W. & Wang, Le, 2011. "Heterogeneity in schooling rates of return," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1202-1214.
    11. Serneels, Pieter & Beegle, Kathleen & Dillon, Andrew, 2017. "Do returns to education depend on how and whom you ask?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 5-19.
    12. Dan Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Lowell Taylor, 2009. "Earnings Functions When Wages and Prices Vary by Location," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 21-47, January.
    13. Jung, Taehyun & Ejermo, Olof, 2014. "Demographic patterns and trends in patenting: Gender, age, and education of inventors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 110-124.
    14. Andini, Corrado, 2009. "How Fast Do Wages Adjust to Human-Capital Productivity? Dynamic Panel-Data Evidence from Belgium, Denmark and Finland," IZA Discussion Papers 4583, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Blundell, Richard & Graber, Michael & Mogstad, Magne, 2015. "Labor income dynamics and the insurance from taxes, transfers, and the family," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 58-73.
    16. Janzen, Katrin & Panitz, Robert & Glückler, Johannes, 2022. "Education premium and the compound impact of universities on their regional economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    17. Farah Hani & Miguel Angel Santos, 2021. "Diagnosing Human Capital as a Binding Constraint to Growth: Tests, Symptoms and Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 168, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    18. Gustavo Yamada, 2007. "Retornos a la educación superior en el mercado laboral: ¿vale la pena el esfuerzo?," Diagnóstico y propuesta, Consorcio de Investigación Económica y Social.
    19. Saule Kemelbayeva, 2020. "Returns to schooling in Kazakhstan: an update using a pseudo-panel approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 437-487, September.
    20. Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Slowdown; Korean Economy; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kdijep:282014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kdiiikr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.