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Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market

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  • Ahmed, Osama
Abstract
Egypt is considered a net wheat importer, with the Egyptian market being vulnerable to future wheat markets because of the effect future market price discovery can have on the stability of spot prices. This study assesses the relationship between Egyptian wheat spot prices and future wheat prices in Paris (MATIF) and USA (CBOT). Markov switching-vector error correction methods are used to estimate two regimes by splitting the sample into high and low volatility regimes. This study also examines the dynamic conditional correlation between the prices considered using the asymmetric DCC-GARCH. Results suggest a high volatility regime observed, especially during the extreme market events of the food crisis in 2007-08 and 2010 and following the two revolutions in Egypt in 2011 and 2013 and the time of the economic reform in 2016. This leads to an unstable market and negative impacts on consumers' welfare and food affordability, meaning that futures markets failed to hedge spot wheat market against price volatility. In addition, results from impulse response functions indicate that a 1% shock in futures markets will lead to a positive shock in the wheat spot market, while for the low volatility regime no significant effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 65-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:248861
    DOI: 10.30682/nm2105e
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    Keywords

    DCC-GARCH; food price volatility; future-spot markets; Markov switching; vector error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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