[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v105y2022ics0140988321005582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude oil price and exchange rate: Evidence from the period before and after the launch of China's crude oil futures

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Chuanwang
  • Zhan, Yanhong
  • Peng, Yiqi
  • Cai, Weiyi
Abstract
This study investigates whether the relationships between China's exchange rate, domestic crude oil price, and the international crude oil price have a switch in the period before and after China's crude oil futures launched by Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) using the MS-VAR model. We find that, although China's oil price is strongly influenced by the international crude oil market, its effect on the international crude oil price is weak; Since the launch of INE crude oil futures in the new regime, the fluctuations in the US dollar against the RMB (USD/CNY) exchange rate has had a significant positive effect on China's crude oil prices. Placebo test results demonstrate that the launch of Brent or Oman crude oil futures, which are US dollar-dominated, do not have the same effects as the launch of INE crude oil futures. This implies that the positive impact of the USD/CNY exchange rate on the INE crude oil futures price may be transmitted to China's crude oil spot market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Peng, Yiqi & Cai, Weiyi, 2022. "Crude oil price and exchange rate: Evidence from the period before and after the launch of China's crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:105:y:2022:i:c:s0140988321005582
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105707
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321005582
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105707?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "The incremental information content of investor fear gauge for volatility forecasting in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 370-386.
    4. Du, Gang & Yu, Meng & Sun, Chuanwang & Han, Zhao, 2021. "Green innovation effect of emission trading policy on pilot areas and neighboring areas: An analysis based on the spatial econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    6. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    7. Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Zhong, Meirui, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of financial factors on fluctuations in nonferrous metals prices: A Markov-switching VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 489-500.
    8. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Risk dependence of CoVaR and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates: A time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 80-92.
    9. Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 42-53.
    10. Wai‐Man Liu & Emma Schultz & John Swieringa, 2015. "Price Dynamics in Global Crude Oil Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 148-162, February.
    11. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    12. Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach," CAMA Working Papers 2018-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Wang, Ailun & Hu, Shuo & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Can environmental regulation solve pollution problems? Theoretical model and empirical research based on the skill premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Qin, Quande & Liu, Yuan & Huang, Jia-Ping, 2020. "A cooperative game analysis for the allocation of carbon emissions reduction responsibility in China's power industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Does oil price have similar effects on the exchange rates of BRICS?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Bashir, Usman & Donghong, Ding, 2017. "Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 338-346.
    18. Scheitrum, Daniel P. & Carter, Colin A. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2018. "WTI and Brent futures pricing structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 462-469.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    22. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-100.
    23. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    24. LI, Jie & HUANG, Lixin & LI, Ping, 2021. "Are Chinese crude oil futures good hedging tools?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    25. Ju, Keyi & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Wu, Junmin, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: An empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1053-1066.
    26. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
    27. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    28. Yang, Mian & Yuan, Yining & Sun, Chuanwang, 2021. "The economic impacts of China's differential electricity pricing policy: Evidence from energy-intensive firms in Hunan Province," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    29. Fang, Xingming & Wang, Lu & Sun, Chuanwang & Zheng, Xuemei & Wei, Jing, 2021. "Gap between words and actions: Empirical study on consistency of residents supporting renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    30. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    31. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    32. Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, April.
    33. Zhang, Bing & Wang, Peijie, 2014. "Return and volatility spillovers between china and world oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 413-420.
    34. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Yin, Libo & Cao, Hong & Guo, Yumei, 2024. "The information content of Shanghai crude oil futures vs WTI benchmark: Evidence from temporal and spatial dimensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    5. Li, Yiying & Ren, Xiaohang & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Vulnerability of sustainable markets to fossil energy shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Bigerna, Simona, 2024. "Connectedness analysis of oil price shocks, inflation, and exchange rate for the MENA region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Liang, Xuedong & Luo, Peng & Li, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xia & Shu, Lingli, 2023. "Crude oil price prediction using deep reinforcement learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Bigerna, Simona, 2023. "Energy price shocks, exchange rates and inflation nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Zhu, Pengfei & Lu, Tuantuan & Chen, Shenglan, 2022. "How do crude oil futures hedge crude oil spot risk after the COVID-19 outbreak? A wavelet denoising-GARCHSK-SJC Copula hedge ratio estimation method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    10. Guo, Yangli & Li, Pan & Wu, Hanlin, 2023. "Jumps in the Chinese crude oil futures volatility forecasting: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Xie, Minghua & Wei, Xiaonan & Chen, Chuanglian & Sun, Chuanwang, 2022. "China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    12. Ding, Shusheng & Zheng, Dandan & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Zhang, Dongyang & Bai, Dingchuan & Chen, Xingyu, 2024. "Can crude oil futures market volatility motivate peer firms in competing ESG performance? An exploration of Shanghai International Energy Exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    15. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhao, Xinyi & Gao, Wang & Niu, Zibo, 2023. "The role of higher moments in predicting China's oil futures volatility: Evidence from machine learning models," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    16. Jia, Zhijie & Liu, Yu & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "The impossible triangle of carbon mitigation policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Maneejuk, Paravee & Kaewtathip, Nuttaphong & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2024. "The influence of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on renewable and fossil energy price cycles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    6. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
    13. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Wanhai You & Yinghua Ren, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock returns: evidence from a two-stage Markov regime-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2491-2507, May.
    15. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    16. Bing‐Yue Liu & Qiang Ji & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ying Fan, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2612-2636, April.
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    18. Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Multi-scale dependence structure and risk contagion between oil, gold, and US exchange rate: A wavelet-based vine-copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    20. Hamid Baghestani & Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul, 2019. "Dynamics between Oil Prices and UAE Effective Exchange Rates: An Empirical Examination," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 16, pages 89-103, May.
    21. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Chen, Qian & Yu, Chang, 2018. "Does exchange rate management affect the causality between exchange rates and oil prices? Evidence from oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 325-343.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:105:y:2022:i:c:s0140988321005582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.