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The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco

Author

Listed:
  • Elsa Augustine
  • Johanna Lacoe
  • Steven Raphael
  • Alissa Skog
Abstract
In the traditional criminal justice system, an arrest is followed by multiple decision points determining detention, prosecution, guilt, and sentence. Many jurisdictions across the U.S. are exploring alternative programs and approaches that consider individual needs and assessed risks at each decision point. San Francisco County, California, uses post‐filing pretrial diversion programs as alternatives to the traditional criminal justice system for defendants based on factors including social and behavioral needs. In this paper, we estimate the impact of a referral to felony pretrial diversion programs on case outcomes and subsequent criminal justice contact. To address selection bias associated with nonrandom assignment into diversion programs, we exploit the random assignment of felony cases to arraignment judges and use variation among judicial diversion referral rates as an instrument for the diversion referral. We find that a referral to diversion increases the time to disposition in the current case and decreases the probability of a subsequent conviction up to five years following case arraignment. Subgroup analyses find that the benefits of diversion are concentrated among females, those who are under the age of 25, and those facing drug sales charges.

Suggested Citation

  • Elsa Augustine & Johanna Lacoe & Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog, 2022. "The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 683-709, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:41:y:2022:i:3:p:683-709
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22371
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Crystal S Yang, 2018. "Racial Bias in Bail Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1885-1932.
    4. Will Dobbie & Jacob Goldin & Crystal S. Yang, 2018. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 201-240, February.
    5. Emily Leslie & Nolan G. Pope, 2017. "The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 529-557.
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    8. Arpit Gupta & Christopher Hansman & Ethan Frenchman, 2016. "The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 471-505.
    9. Alison Evans Cuellar & Larkin S. McReynolds & Gail A. Wasserman, 2006. "A cure for crime: Can mental health treatment diversion reduce crime among youth?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 197-214.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes W. Ligtenberg & Tiemen Woutersen, 2024. "Multidimensional clustering in judge designs," Papers 2406.09473, arXiv.org.
    2. Yotam Shem‐Tov & Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog, 2024. "Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make‐it‐Right Program," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 61-78, January.

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