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Growth in a Cross-section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

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  • Rafael Gonz�lez-Val
  • Jose Olmo
Abstract
This article analyses empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we consider a large database of urban, climatological and macroeconomic data from 1,173 US cities observed in 1990 and 2000. The econometric model is robust to the presence of spatial effects. Our analysis shows the existence of increasing returns and two distinct equilibria in per-capita income and population growth. We also find important differences in the structure of productive activity, unemployment rates and geographical location between cities in low-income and high-income regimes.

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  • Rafael Gonz�lez-Val & Jose Olmo, 2015. "Growth in a Cross-section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 230-261, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:230-261
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2015.1023337
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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