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From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Rajeev Dehejia
  • Cristian Pop-Eleches
  • Cyrus Samii
Abstract
We study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using over 100 replications of the Angrist and Evans natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for reducing errors in predicting treatments, an issue that past studies of external validity have been unable to evaluate. We develop methods for two applications to evidence-based decision-making, including determining where to locate an experiment and whether policy-makers should commission new experiments or rely on an existing evidence base for making a policy decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajeev Dehejia & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii, 2021. "From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 217-243, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:39:y:2021:i:1:p:217-243
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1639407
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    1. Rajeev Dehejia & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii, 2021. "From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 217-243, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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