[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v53y2021i57p6611-6625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem

Author

Listed:
  • Mariarosaria Comunale
  • Francesco Paolo Mongelli
Abstract
Which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years? Answering is challenging due to dimensionality problems caused by a large set of potential determinants, limited data availability, and the prospect of non-stationarity of some variables. We propose an atheoretical framework starting with a set of 35 real, financial, monetary, and institutional variables for nine of the initial euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2019Q4. Using the Weighted-Average Least Squares method, we gather clues about which variables to select. We quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main findings are that institutional reforms, competitiveness, monetary policy and a decrease in systemic risk play a relevant role for long-run growth in the euro area. Surprisingly, the fiscal deficit is not an important factor, and neither is credit to households. Lower debt to GDP ratios are beneficial in the short run. Credit to firms has been an important factor for growth in core countries and an increase in global GDP spillovers positively to the euro area growth in a longer horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2021. "Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6611-6625, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:57:p:6611-6625
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1947959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2021.1947959
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2021.1947959?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    3. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    8. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    10. Ferdinand Owoundi, 2016. "Do exchange rate misalignments really affect economic growth? The case of Sub-Saharan African countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 145, pages 92-110.
    11. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2008. "Growth, convergence and EU membership," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 643-656.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    13. Douglass C. North, 1991. "Institutions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 97-112, Winter.
    14. Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos & Kremer, Manfred, 2017. "Beyond spreads: Measuring sovereign market stress in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 153-156.
    15. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    16. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    18. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    20. Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(4), pages 165-187.
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    22. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    23. Kempa, Bernd & Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2017. "Spillover effects of debt and growth in the euro area: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    24. Mika, Alina & Zumer, Tina, 2017. "Indebtedness in the EU: a drag or a catalyst for growth?," Working Paper Series 2118, European Central Bank.
    25. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Interest Rates and Low Inflation. A Review of Literature and Methods," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    26. Jan R. Magnus & Wendun Wang & Xinyu Zhang, 2016. "Weighted-Average Least Squares Prediction," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 1040-1074, June.
    27. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Jan R. Magnus & Giuseppe De Luca, 2016. "Weighted-Average Least Squares (Wals): A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 117-148, February.
    29. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    30. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    31. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    32. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
    33. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    34. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    35. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Measuring coherence of output gaps with an application to the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 217-236, April.
    36. Mariarosaria Comunale & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen & Soroosh Soofi-Siavash, 2019. "Convergence and growth decomposition: an analysis on Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.
    37. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Estimating dynamic common-correlated effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(3), pages 585-617, September.
    39. Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Dorrucci, Ettore & Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Muzikarova, Sona, 2017. "Real convergence in the euro area: a long-term perspective," Occasional Paper Series 203, European Central Bank.
    40. Cinzia Alcidi, 2019. "Economic Integration and Income Convergence in the EU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(1), pages 5-11, January.
    41. Cristina Fernández & Pilar García Perea, 2015. "The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita," Working Papers 1530, Banco de España.
    42. Han, Xuehui & Khan, Haider & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2014. "Do Governance Indicators Explain Development Performance? A Cross-Country Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 417, Asian Development Bank.
    43. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    44. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    45. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    46. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    47. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    48. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    49. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Campos,Nauro F. & De Grauwe,Paul & Ji,Yuemei (ed.), 2020. "Economic Growth and Structural Reforms in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108479110, September.
    51. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 70, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Euro Area Growth and European Institutional Reforms," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    5. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Silvia Calò & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Real Effective Exchange Rates determinants and growth: lessons from Italian regions," CEIS Research Paper 456, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    8. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2017. "Natural Resources and Economic Development: New Panel Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 363-391, February.
    9. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Empirics of Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    11. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Alharbi, Samar S. & Al Mamun, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Green finance and renewable energy: A worldwide evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Chirwa Themba G. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2016. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 33-47, December.
    14. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    15. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    16. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    17. Mohamed Chakroun & Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi, 2021. "Does export upgrading really matter to economic growth? Evidence from panel data for high‐, middle‐ and low‐income countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5584-5609, October.
    18. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    19. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    20. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:57:p:6611-6625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.