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A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU

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  • Comunale, Mariarosaria
Abstract
We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments and financial (or output) gaps within EU countries. We apply panel techniques, including a Bayesian panel VAR, to 27 EU members over the period 1994-2012. We find that, for the euro area, the reaction of current account misalignments to a shock in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments is the largest and the financial gap can influence the current account misalignments more than the output gap. In non-euro area countries and euro periphery an increase in current account misalignments leads to a temporary increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments, lowering competitiveness and thus amplifying current account fluctuations. For the core, a raise in the rate or an expansion of the financial gap may help in rebalancing the current account. In the CEE members, an increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments may bring larger current account deficits in the medium-long run. JEL Classification: F32, F31, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Working Paper Series 2026, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172026
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "A Closer Look at EU Current Accounts," CEIS Research Paper 393, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Aug 2016.
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    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Unit labour costs and the dynamics of output and unemployment in the southern European crisis countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 597-616, August.
    4. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
    5. Schnücker, A.M., 2019. "Penalized Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI-2019-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Marçal, Emerson & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2024. "Current account and real effective exchange rate dynamics: the role of non-linear dynamics in Brazil," Textos para discussão 571, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Olayinka Oyekola & Rasheed Adigun & Temitope Fagbemi & Oluwagbenga Seyingbo & Rodiat Lawal, 2023. "Heterogeneous and time varying nexus between climate change and quality of life in Africa," Discussion Papers 2308, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    8. sheunesu zhou, 2020. "Shadow Banking, Bank Liquidity and Monetary Policy Shocks in Emerging Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(6), pages 46-59.
    9. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2019. "The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1306-1319.
    10. Mariarosaria Comunale & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen & Soroosh Soofi-Siavash, 2019. "Convergence and growth decomposition: an analysis on Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Guo, Yang & Zhao, Luwei & Zhang, Congcong, 2023. "Energy resources, tourism development and growth-emission nexus in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dimitrios Karamanis, 2022. "Defence partnerships, military expenditure, investment, and economic growth: an analysis in PESCO countries," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 173, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    14. Rishi Kapoor Ronoowah & Boopendra Seetanah, 2023. "Corporate governance, capital structure, and firm performance: a panel VAR approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, January.
    15. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    16. Hyun-Jee Kim & Bongsuk Sung, 2020. "How Knowledge Assets Affect the Learning-by-Exporting Effect: Evidence Using Panel Data for Manufacturing Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; financial gaps; foreign capital flows; panel VAR; real effective exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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