[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/13107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Causal effects on employment after first birth: A dynamic treatment approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Sommerfeld, Katrin
  • Steffes, Susanne
Abstract
The effects of childbirth on future labor market outcomes are a key issue for policy discussion. This paper implements a dynamic treatment approach to estimate the effect of having the first child now versus later on future employment for the case of Germany, a country with a long maternity leave coverage. Effect heterogeneity is assessed by estimating ex post outcome regressions. Based on SOEP data, we provide estimates at a monthly frequency. The results show that there are very strong negative employment effects after childbirth. Although the employment loss is reduced over the first five years following childbirth, it does not level off to zero. The employment loss is lower for mothers with a university degree. It is especially high for medium-skilled mothers with long prebirth employment experience. We find a significant reduction in the employment loss for more recent childbirths.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Sommerfeld, Katrin & Steffes, Susanne, 2013. "Causal effects on employment after first birth: A dynamic treatment approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-107, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88603/1/774676221.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina Boll, 2009. "Lohneinbußen durch geburtsbedingte Erwerbsunterbrechungen: fertilitätstheoretische Einordnung, Quantifizierung auf Basis von SOEP-Daten und familienpolitische Implikationen," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 160, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Jochen Kluve & Marcus Tamm, 2013. "Parental leave regulations, mothers’ labor force attachment and fathers’ childcare involvement: evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 983-1005, July.
    3. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
    4. Markus Frlich, 2004. "Finite-Sample Properties of Propensity-Score Matching and Weighting Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 77-90, February.
    5. Annette Bergemann & Regina Riphahn, 2011. "Female labour supply and parental leave benefits - the causal effect of paying higher transfers for a shorter period of time," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 17-20.
    6. Ondrich, Jan & Spiess, C Katharina & Yang, Qing, 1996. "Barefoot and in a German Kitchen: Federal Parental Leave and Benefit Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 247-266, August.
    7. Mette Ejrnæs & Astrid Kunze, 2013. "Work and Wage Dynamics around Childbirth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 856-877, July.
    8. Elizabeth Ty Wilde & Lily Batchelder & David T. Ellwood, 2010. "The Mommy Track Divides: The Impact of Childbearing on Wages of Women of Differing Skill Levels," NBER Working Papers 16582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Troske, Kenneth & Voicu, Alexandru, 2009. "The Effect of Children on the Level of Labor Market Involvement of Married Women: What is the Role of Education?," IZA Discussion Papers 4074, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, July.
    11. Bernd Fitzenberger & Olga Orlanski & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2013. "Déjà Vu? Short-term training in Germany 1980–1992 and 2000–2003," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 289-328, February.
    12. Katrin Sommerfeld, 2009. "Older Babies - More Active Mothers? How Maternal Labor Supply Changes as the Child Grows," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 129(2), pages 227-240.
    13. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    14. Busso, Matias & DiNardo, John & McCrary, Justin, 2009. "New Evidence on the Finite Sample Properties of Propensity Score Matching and Reweighting Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3998, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2008. "Dynamic Treatment Assignment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 435-445.
    16. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
    17. Johannes Geyer & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Short-Run and Long-Term Effects of Childbirth on Mothers' Employment and Working Hours across Institutional Regimes: An Empirical Analysis Based on the European Community Household Panel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 682, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Siv S. Gustafsson & Shirley Dex & Cécile M. M. P. Wetzels & Jan Dirk Vlasblom, 1996. "Women`s labor force transitions in connection with childbirth: A panel data comparison between Germany, Sweden and Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 223-246.
    19. Julian P. Cristia, 2008. "The Effect of a First Child on Female Labor Supply: Evidence from Women Seeking Fertility Services," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 487-510.
    20. Abadie, Alberto & Imbens, Guido W., 2011. "Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11.
    21. Katharina Wrohlich, 2004. "Child Care Costs and Mothers' Labor Supply: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 412, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    23. Karsten Hank & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2000. "Does the availability of childcare influence the employment of mothers? Findings from western Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    24. Jan Ondrich & C. Spiess & Qing Yang & Gert Wagner, 2003. "The Liberalization of Maternity Leave Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 77-110, January.
    25. Troske, Kenneth R. & Voicu, Alexandru, 2010. "Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    26. Kenneth Troske & Alexandru Voicu, 2013. "The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 483-521, August.
    27. Bronars, Stephen G & Grogger, Jeff, 1994. "The Economic Consequences of Unwed Motherhood: Using Twin Births as a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1141-1156, December.
    28. Federico Ciliberto & Amalia R. Miller & Helena Skyt Nielsen & Marianne Simonsen, 2016. "Playing The Fertility Game At Work: An Equilibrium Model Of Peer Effects," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(3), pages 827-856, August.
    29. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg, 2012. "Expansions in Maternity Leave Coverage and Children's Long-Term Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 190-224, July.
    30. van Ham, Maarten & Büchel, Felix, 2004. "Females' Willingness to Work and the Discouragement Effect of a Poor Local Childcare Provision," IZA Discussion Papers 1220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    32. Fernández-Kranz Daniel & Aitor Lacuesta & Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2013. "The Motherhood Earnings Dip: Evidence from Administrative Records," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 169-197.
    33. Troske, Kenneth & Voicu, Alexandru, 2011. "A Panel Data Analysis of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Married Women's Labor Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 5729, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    34. Millimet, Daniel L, 2000. "The Impact of Children on Wages, Job Tenure, and the Division of Household Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 139-157, March.
    35. Amalia Miller, 2011. "The effects of motherhood timing on career path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1071-1100, July.
    36. Lefebvre, Pierre & Merrigan, Philip & Verstraete, Matthieu, 2009. "Dynamic labour supply effects of childcare subsidies: Evidence from a Canadian natural experiment on low-fee universal child care," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 490-502, October.
    37. Sianesi, Barbara, 2008. "Differential effects of active labour market programs for the unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 370-399, June.
    38. Lechner, Michael, 2009. "Sequential Causal Models for the Evaluation of Labor Market Programs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 71-83.
    39. Waldfogel, Jane, 1998. "The Family Gap for Young Women in the United States and Britain: Can Maternity Leave Make a Difference?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(3), pages 505-545, July.
    40. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweimüller, 2009. "How Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return to Work? Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1363-1402.
    41. Michael Baker & Kevin Milligan, 2008. "How Does Job-Protected Maternity Leave Affect Mothers' Employment?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 655-691, October.
    42. Jane Waldfogel, 1998. "Understanding the "Family Gap" in Pay for Women with Children," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 137-156, Winter.
    43. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, September.
    44. Miriam Beblo & Elke Wolf, 2002. "How much does a year off cost? Estimating the wage effects of employment breaks and part-time periods," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 45(2), pages 191-217.
    45. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    46. Bianca Buligescu & Denis de Crombrugghe & Gülçin Menteşoğlu & Raymond Montizaan, 2009. "Panel estimates of the wage penalty for maternal leave," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages 35-55, April.
    47. Lars Skipper & Marianne Simonsen, 2006. "The costs of motherhood: an analysis using matching estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 919-934.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Picchio & Claudia Pigini & Stefano Staffolani & Alina Verashchagina, 2021. "If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labor market outcomes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 663-685, September.
    2. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2016. "Mothers' long-run career patterns after first birth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 707-725, June.
    3. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Pamminger, Christoph & Weber, Andrea & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2014. "When Is The Best Time To Give Birth?," Economics Series 308, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Nieto, Adrián, 2021. "Native-immigrant differences in the effect of children on the gender pay gap," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 654-680.
    5. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Weber, Andrea & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Pamminger, Christoph, 2014. "When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mari, Gabriele & Cutuli, Giorgio, 2018. "Do parental leaves make the motherhood wage penalty worse? Assessing two decades of German reforms," SocArXiv f2nrc, Center for Open Science.
    7. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Spieß, C. Katharina & Wrohlich, Katharina, 2013. "Das Elterngeld und seine Wirkungen auf das Haushaltseinkommen junger Familien und die Erwerbstätigkeit von Müttern," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 193-211.
    8. Martina Querejeta Rabosto & Marisa Bucheli, 2021. "Motherhood Penalties: the Effect of Childbirth on Women's Employment Dynamics in a Developing Country," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0121, Department of Economics - dECON.
    9. Damian Clarke, 2018. "Children And Their Parents: A Review Of Fertility And Causality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 518-540, April.
    10. Kazuaki Okamura & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Effects of the timing of childbirth on female labor supply: an analysis using the sequential matching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(28), pages 3253-3266, June.
    11. Hupkau, Claudia & Leturcq, Marion, 2017. "Fertility and mothers’ labor supply: new evidence usingtime-to-conception," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69045, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Kevin Stange, 2011. "A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship Between Fertility Timing and Schooling," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 931-956, August.
    13. Gabriele Mari & Giorgio Cutuli, 2019. "Do Parental Leaves Make the Motherhood Wage Penalty Worse? Assessing Two Decades of German Reforms," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1025, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Rosenbaum, Philip, 2020. "Does early childbearing matter? New approach using Danish register data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Sophie-Charlotte Klose, 2020. "Identifying Latent Structures in Maternal Employment: Evidence on the German Parental Benefit Reform," Papers 2011.03541, arXiv.org.
    16. Berniell, Inés & Berniell, Lucila & de la Mata, Dolores & Edo, María & Marchionni, Mariana, 2023. "Motherhood and flexible jobs: Evidence from Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    17. Robert M. Sauer & Christopher Taber, 2021. "Understanding women's wage growth using indirect inference with importance sampling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 453-473, June.
    18. Lionel Wilner, 2016. "Worker-firm matching and the parenthood pay gap: Evidence from linked employer-employee data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 991-1023, October.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0481 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Julio E. Romero Prieto, 2018. "La maternidad y el empleo formal en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 16328, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    21. Astrid Kunze, 2020. "The effect of children on male earnings and inequality," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 683-710, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Female labor supply; Maternity leave; Dynamic treatment effect; Inverse Probability Weighting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.