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Income Shifting under Losses

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  • Schindler, Dirk Steffen
  • Hopland, Arnt Ove
  • Lisowsky, Petro
  • Mardan, Mohammed
Abstract
This paper examines the flexibility of multinational firms to use income-shifting strategies within a tax year to react to operating losses. First, we develop an analytical model that considers how affiliate losses can be adjusted by using the transfer prices of tangible and intangible assets, as well as internal debt shifting, either by ex-post (i.e., by the end of the tax year) or ex-ante income shifting (i.e, before the current tax year). Our model predicts that, due to income shifting, multinational firms report lower profits when running profits, and lower losses when running losses, compared to domestic firms. It also suggests that under ex-post income shifting, loss affiliates have lower transfer prices and internal leverage than profitable affiliates, whereas under ex-ante income shifting, affiliates feature the same transfer prices and internal capital structure, regardless of making losses. Second, using data on direct transfer payments and internal debt of Norwegian affiliates, we find empirical evidence that, under losses, transfer pricing gives substantial flexibility to adjust income shifting ex post. In contrast, we do not find evidence for flexibility in the use of internal debt to shift income ex post. We contribute to the literature that neglecting the precautionary income-shifting behavior of potential loss affiliates underestimates the sensitivity of tax rates to transfer payments and to internal debt, whenever some ex-ante income shifting is present.

Suggested Citation

  • Schindler, Dirk Steffen & Hopland, Arnt Ove & Lisowsky, Petro & Mardan, Mohammed, 2015. "Income Shifting under Losses," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112972, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112972
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    5. Peter Vaz da Fonseca & Michele Nascimento Juca, 2020. "The Influence of Taxes on Foreign Direct Investment: Systematic Literature Review and Bibliometric Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 55-77.
    6. Bornemann, Tobias, 2018. "Do transfer pricing rules distort R&D investment decisions?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 233, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    7. Ludvig Wier, 2018. "Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-123, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Pranvera Shehaj & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 2024. "Corporate income tax, IP boxes and the location of R&D," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 203-242, February.
    9. Manthos D. Delis & Iftekhar Hasan & Panagiotis I. Karavitis, 2020. "Profit shifting and tax‐rate uncertainty," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5-6), pages 645-676, May.
    10. Hasan, Iftekhar & Karavitis, Panagiotis & Kazakis, Pantelis & Leung, Woon Sau, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Profit Shifting," MPRA Paper 91580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bakke, Julia Tropina & Hopland, Arnt Ove & Møen, Jarle, 2019. "Profit shifting and the effect of stricter transfer pricing regulation on tax revenue," Discussion Papers 2019/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    12. Ludvig Wier & Hayley Reynolds, 2018. "Big and 'unprofitable': How 10 per cent of multinational firms do 98 per cent of profit shifting," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-111, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Ludvig Wier, 2018. "Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data," WIDER Working Paper Series 123, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Dominika Langenmayr & Li Liu, 2020. "Where Does Multinational Profit Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 8047, CESifo.
    15. Wier, Ludvig, 2020. "Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Zero Deng, 2020. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Hedging, and Tax‐Motivated Outbound Income Shifting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 953-987, September.
    17. Jay Pil CHOI & ISHIKAWA Jota & OKOSHI Hirofumi, 2019. "Tax Havens and Cross-border Licensing," Discussion papers 19105, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Nicolay, Katharina & Nusser, Hannah & Pfeiffer, Olena, 2017. "On the interdependency of profit shifting channels and the effectiveness of anti-avoidance legislation," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-066, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Peter Egger & Michael Stimmelmayr, 2017. "Taxation and the Multinational Firm," CESifo Working Paper Series 6384, CESifo.
    20. Ludvig Wier & Hayley Reynolds, 2018. "Big and ‘unprofitable’: How 10% of multinational firms do 98% of profit shifting," WIDER Working Paper Series 111, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Arnt Ove Hopland & Petro Lisowsky & Mohammed Mardan & Dirk Schindler, 2021. "Inflexibility in Income Shifting: Implications, Detection and Remedies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9384, CESifo.
    22. Bodo Knoll & Nadine Riedel, 2020. "Patent Shifing and Anti-Tax Avoidance Legislation," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(04), pages 25-29, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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