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World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities

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  • Robert Shiller
Abstract
We provide methods of decomposing the variance of world national incomes into components in such a way as to indicate the most important risk-sharing opportunities, and, therefore, the most important missing international risk markets to establish. One method uses a total variance reduction criterion, and identifies risk-sharing opportunities in terms of eigenvectors of a variance matrix of residuals produced when country incomes are regressed on world income. Another method uses a mean-variance utility-maximizing criterion and identifies risk-sharing opportunities in terms of eigenvectors of a variance matrix of deviations of country incomes from their respective contract-year shares of world income. The two methods are applied using Summers-Heston (1991) data on national incomes for large countries 1950-1990, each using two different methods of estimating variances. While these data are not sufficient to provide accurate estimates of the requisite variance matrices of (transformed) national incomes, the results are suggestive of important new markets that could actually be created, and show that there may be large welfare gains to creating some of these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Shiller, 2004. "World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm151, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm151
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    Cited by:

    1. Auffret, Philippe, 2001. "An alternative unifying measure of welfare gains from risk-sharing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2676, The World Bank.
    2. Athanasoulis, Stefano G. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Growth uncertainty and risksharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 477-505, June.
    3. Ortuno-Ortin, Ignacio & Sempere, Jaume, 2006. "A theoretical model of nations, regions and fiscal integration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 132-157, January.
    4. Stefano Athanasoulis & Eric Van Wincoop, 1998. "Risksharing within the United States: what have financial markets and fiscal federalism accomplished?," Research Paper 9808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    6. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1145, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Robert J. Shiller & Ryan Schneider, 1998. "Labor Income Indices Designed For Use In Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(2), pages 163-182, June.
    9. John Geanakoplos & Felix Kubler, 2003. "Dollar Denominated Debt and Optimal Security Design," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1449, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1031-1054, September.
    11. Wagner, W.B., 2000. "Decentralized International Risk Sharing and Governmental Moral Hazard," Other publications TiSEM e1835d1b-f90b-4907-be6c-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Anne Villamil, 2006. "Do lack of transparency and enforcement undermine international risk-sharing?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 123-140, March.
    13. van Wincoop, Eric, 1999. "How big are potential welfare gains from international risksharing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 109-135, February.
    14. Athanasoulis, Stefano & van Wincoop, Eric, 1997. "Growth Uncertainty And Risksharing," Economic Reports 18194, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Lee, Khang Min & Moyen, Nathalie, 2006. "Optimal liberalization of financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1319-1335, December.
    16. Wagner, W.B., 2000. "Decentralized International Risk Sharing and Governmental Moral Hazard," Discussion Paper 2000-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Stefano Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller & Eric Van Wincoop, 1999. "Macro markets and financial security," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr), pages 21-39.

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    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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