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The determinants of long-run real exchange rates in South Africa: a fundamental equilibrium approach

Author

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  • Njindan Iyke , Bernard
  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M.
Abstract
In this paper, we identify the fundamental determinants of the long-run exchange rates in South Africa. We then estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for this country using a dataset covering the period 1975-2012. In order to account for possible short-run fluctuations in the real exchange rate, we conducted a cointegration test using the ARDL bounds-testing procedure. First, we found terms of trade, trade openness, government consumption, net foreign assets and real commodity prices to be the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa. Second, we found that nearly 68.06 per cent of the real exchange rate disequilibrium is corrected annually. Overall, the estimated equilibrium exchange rate indicates that the Rand has been depreciating in real terms over the years. Tightening trade openness is not an option, given international agreements; on the other hand, terms of trade and real commodity prices are determined by the world market. The obvious policy alternative is for South Africa to increase government spending and moderately decrease her net foreign asset position.

Suggested Citation

  • Njindan Iyke , Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2015. "The determinants of long-run real exchange rates in South Africa: a fundamental equilibrium approach," Working Papers 18979, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:18979
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental Determinants; Real Exchange Rates; Equilibrium Exchange Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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