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Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory

Author

Listed:
  • Shinichiro Shirota

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Takayuki Hizu

    (Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking)

  • Yasuhiro Omori

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract
The daily return and the realized volatility are simultaneously modeled in the stochastic volatility model with leverage and long memory. The dependent variable in the stochastic volatility model is the logarithm of the squared return, and its error distribution is approximated by a mixture of normals. In addition, we incorporate the logarithm of the realized volatility into the measurement equation, assuming that the latent log volatility follows an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process to describe its long memory property. Using a state space representation, we propose an ecient Bayesian estimation method implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC). Model comparisons are performed based on the marginal likelihood, and the volatility forecasting performances are investigated using S&P500 stock index returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichiro Shirota & Takayuki Hizu & Yasuhiro Omori, 2012. "Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-869, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2012cf869
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2016. "Volatility Forecasts Using Nonlinear Leverage Effects," Papers 1605.06482, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    2. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2020. "Volatility forecasts using stochastic volatility models with nonlinear leverage effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 143-154, March.
    3. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael & Peiris, Shelton, 2020. "Realized stochastic volatility models with generalized Gegenbauer long memory," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 42-54.
    4. Yuta Kurose, 2021. "Stochastic volatility model with range-based correction and leverage," Papers 2110.00039, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    5. Li, Chenxing & Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2024. "Volatility or higher moments: Which is more important in return density forecasts of stochastic volatility model?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Stojanović, Vladica S. & Popović, Biljana Č. & Milovanović, Gradimir V., 2016. "The Split-SV model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 560-581.
    7. Wen Cheong Chin & Min Cherng Lee & Tan Pei Pei & Grace Lee Ching Yap & ChristineTan Nya Ling, 2016. "Dynamic Long Memory High Frequency Multipower Variation Volatility Evaluations for S&P500," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 1-1, May.
    8. Jiang, Wei & Ruan, Qingsong & Li, Jianfeng & Li, Ye, 2018. "Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 500(C), pages 249-258.
    9. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2017. "Realized stochastic volatility with general asymmetry and long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 202-212.
    10. Chiranjit Dutta & Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & Nalini Ravishanker, 2023. "Review of Statistical Approaches for Modeling High-Frequency Trading Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 1-48, May.
    11. McCausland, William & Miller, Shirley & Pelletier, Denis, 2021. "Multivariate stochastic volatility using the HESSIAN method," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 76-94.
    12. Shirota, Shinichiro & Omori, Yasuhiro & F. Lopes, Hedibert. & Piao, Haixiang, 2017. "Cholesky realized stochastic volatility model," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 34-59.
    13. Bekierman Jeremias & Gribisch Bastian, 2016. "Estimating stochastic volatility models using realized measures," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 279-300, June.
    14. Jia Liu, 2021. "A Bayesian Semiparametric Realized Stochastic Volatility Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2022. "Realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility with asymmetry, long memory and higher-moment spillovers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 285-304.
    16. Wu, Xinyu & Wang, Xiaona, 2020. "Forecasting volatility using realized stochastic volatility model with time-varying leverage effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    17. Tian, Shuairu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Modeling interest rate volatility: A Realized GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 158-171.

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