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Estimating Network Effects and Compatibility in Mobile Telecommunications

Author

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  • Michal Grajek
Abstract
This paper provides empirical evidence on the extent of network effects and compatibility between networks in mobile telecommunications. We specify a structural model of demand for mobile telephone service, which allows us to identify the parameters of interest from the S-shape of mobile service diffusion. The network effects are measured by the dependence of consumer willingness to pay on the installed base of subscribers. Compatibility is measured by the relative extent of cross- and own-network effects. As such, it indicates whether the network effects operate at the firm level, at the industry level, or at both. We then estimate this model for the Polish mobile telephone industry using quarterly panel data for the period 1996-2001. We find strong network effects, which give rise to upward-sloping demand, and, despite full interconnection of the mobile telephone networks, low compatibility. We show also that ignoring network effects in empirical models of emerging network industries might substantially bias downward the estimated price elasticity of demand. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Schätzung von Netzwerkeffekten und Kompatibilität in Mobilfunktelekommunikation) Der vorliegende Beitrag bietet empirische Evidenz für den Umfang von Netzwerkeffekten und Netzwerkkompatibilität in der Mobilfunktelekom-munikation. Wir spezifizieren ein strukturelles Modell für die Nachfrage von Mobilfunkdienstleistungen, das die Parameter von Interesse mithilfe der S-förmigen Funktion der Dienstleistungsdiffusion identifiziert. Die Netzwerkeffekte werden durch die Abhängigkeit der Zahlungsbereitschaft der Konsumenten von der installierten Abonnentenbasis gemessen. Netzwerkkompatibilität wird durch den relativen Umfang der Quer- und Eigen-Netzwerkeffekte gemessen. Sie weist darauf hin, ob Netzwerkeffekten auf Unternehmensebene, auf Industrieebene, oder auf beiden Ebenen bestehen. Dann schätzen wir das Modell für die Polnische Mobilfunkindustrie mit vierteljährlichen Paneldaten für 1996-2001. Wir stellen starke Netzwerkeffekte fest, die eine positive Steigung in der Nachfragefunktion verursachen, und - trotz der technisch vollständigen Querverbindung der Mobilfunknetze - niedrige Kompatibilität. Wir zeigen auch, dass das Übersehen von Netzwerkeffekten in empirischen Modellen von neuen Netzwerkindustrien die geschätzte Preiselastizität der Nachfrage signifikant nach unten verzerren kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Grajek, 2003. "Estimating Network Effects and Compatibility in Mobile Telecommunications," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-26, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    • Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2003-26
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    Cited by:

    1. Ching-I Huang, 2008. "Estimating demand for cellular phone service under nonlinear pricing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 371-413, December.
    2. Grajek, Michal & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2009. "Usage and diffusion of cellular telephony, 1998-2004," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-249, March.
    3. Daniel Birke, 2009. "The Economics Of Networks: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 762-793, September.
    4. Rasch, Alexander, 2017. "Compatibility, network effects, and collusion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 39-43.
    5. Doganoglu, Toker & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2007. "Estimating network effects in mobile telephony in Germany," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-79, March.
    6. Usero, Belén & Fernández, Zulima, 2009. "First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 62(11), pages 1139-1145, November.
    7. Miko?aj Czajkowski & Maciej Sobolewski, 2011. "Measuring network effects in mobile telecommunications markets with stated-preference valuation methods," International Journal of Management and Network Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 197-215.
    8. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Entry, Standards and Competition: Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, November.
    9. Pagani, Margherita & Fine, Charles H., 2008. "Value network dynamics in 3G-4G wireless communications: A systems thinking approach to strategic value assessment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(11), pages 1102-1112, November.
    10. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Sobolewski, Maciej, 2016. "How much do switching costs and local network effects contribute to consumer lock-in in mobile telephony?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 855-869.
    11. Lechman, Ewa, 2014. "The ‘technological take-off’ and the 'critical mass'. A trial conceptualization," MPRA Paper 59506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sven Schade & Thorsten Frey & Nezar Mahmoud, 2009. "Simulating Discount-Pricing Strategies for the GSM-Mobile Market," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 1(4), pages 289-300, August.
    13. Hulisi Ögüt & Asunur Cezar & Merve Güven, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Demand for Mobile Services in Turkey," Working Papers 937, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2015.
    14. Zulima Fernández & Belén Usero, 2007. "The erosion of pioneer advantage in the European mobile telecommunications industry," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 1(3), pages 195-210, September.
    15. Jean-Michel HUET & Isabelle VIENNOIS & Pierre LABARTHE & Anas EL BARKANI, 2012. "Impact Study of the Arrival of a New Mobile Phone Operator in Haiti," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(86), pages 175-192, 2nd quart.
    16. Laura Rinaldi, 2008. "Estimation of network externalities and critical mass in the mobile telephone market: a panel data analysis of the OECD countries," Working Papers 1_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    17. Baraldi, A. Laura, 2008. "Network Externalities and Critical Mass in the Mobile Telephone Network: a Panel Data Estimation," MPRA Paper 13373, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Econometric Model; Network Effects; Compatibility; Mobile Telecommunications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications

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