[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwrsa/ersa02p117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Longhi, Simonetta
  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Reggiani, Aura
  • Blien, Uwe
Abstract
The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data.

Suggested Citation

  • Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p117, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/117.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Chiarini & Paolo Piselli, 1997. "Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 544-565, November.
    2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    3. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
    4. Groot Wim & Mekkelholt Eddie & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1992. "Further evidence on the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 355-359, March.
    5. Sato, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Search theory and the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 93-98, January.
    6. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment and wage formation with matching frictions and worker moral hazard," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
    8. Kare Johansen, 1997. "The wage curve: convexity, kinks and composition effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 71-78.
    9. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    11. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    12. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    13. Kennedy, Steven & Borland, Jeff, 2000. "A Wage Curve for Australia?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 774-803, October.
    14. Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
    15. repec:bla:scotjp:v:44:y:1997:i:5:p:545-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fischer, M.M. & Nijkamp, P., 1989. "Some major issues in regional labour market analysis," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    17. Janssens, Stefan & Konings, Jozef, 1998. "One more wage curve: the case of Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 223-227, August.
    18. Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
    19. Johann H. Baumann & Manfred M. Fischer & Uwe Schubert, 1983. "A Multiregional Labour Supply Model For Austria: The Effects Of Different Regionalisations In Multiregional Labour Market Modelling," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 53-83, January.
    20. Paul Krugman, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
    21. Fischer, Manfred M. & Reismann, Martin & Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina, 2000. "Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction. Modelling By Bootstrapping," ERSA conference papers ersa00p370, European Regional Science Association.
    22. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-364, Oct.-Dec..
    23. Manfred M. Fischer, 2001. "Neural Spatial Interaction Models," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Manfred M. Fischer & Yee Leung (ed.), GeoComputational Modelling, chapter 8, pages 195-219, Springer.
    24. repec:bla:scandj:v:92:y:1990:i:2:p:215-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    26. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    27. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
    28. Thijs ten Raa & Ronald Schettkat (ed.), 2001. "The Growth of Service Industries," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2137.
    29. Aura Reggiani (ed.), 2000. "Spatial Economic Science," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-59787-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets," Experimental 0511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Tsang, Wai Fai, 2004. "Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows: Applications to multimodal European freight transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(3), pages 584-602, June.
    3. Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani, 2008. "Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 701-722, August.
    4. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30.
    5. Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani, 2008. "Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 701-722, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    3. Inmaculada Garcia-Mainar & Victor Montuenga-Gomez, 2003. "The Spanish Wage Curve: 1994-1996," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 929-945.
    4. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    5. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2006. "Spatial Heterogeneity And The Wage Curve Revisited," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 707-731, October.
    6. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Knut RØed, 2006. "Wage Formation, Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 423-444, August.
    7. Simonetta Longhi, 2012. "Job Competition and the Wage Curve," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 611-620, August.
    8. Ulrich Zierahn, 2013. "Agglomeration, congestion, and regional unemployment disparities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(2), pages 435-457, October.
    9. Demidova, O. & Timofeeva, E., 2021. "Spatial aspects of wage curve estimation in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 69-101.
    10. Bernard FINGLETON & Silvia PALOMBI, 2013. "The Wage Curve Reconsidered: Is It Truly An 'Empirical Law Of Economics'?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 49-92.
    11. Roberto Bande Ramudo & Melchor Fernández Fernández & Víctor Montuenga Gómez, 2011. "Wage flexibility and local labour markets: homogeneity of the wage curve in Spain," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0044, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    12. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2006. "The Wage Curve: An Entry Written for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition," IZA Discussion Papers 2138, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Marisa Carla Bucheli Anaya & Cecilia González Rodríguez-Villamil, 2012. "An estimation of the wage curve for Uruguay," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    14. Hynninen, Sanna-Mari, 2009. "Is there a wage curve for the highly educated?," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-17, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Kåre Johansen, 2002. "Regional Wage Curves Empirical Evidence from Norway," Working Paper Series 0302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    16. Baltagi, Badi H. & Rokicki, Bartlomiej, 2014. "The spatial Polish wage curve with gender effects: Evidence from the Polish Labor Survey," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 36-47.
    17. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2009. "New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-51, January.
    18. Campbell III, Carl M., 2008. "An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1388-1415, December.
    19. Bill Collier, 2000. "The UK Wage Curve: New Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Studies in Economics 0010, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. David Castro Lugo, 2006. "Curva salarial: una aplicación para el caso de México, 1993-2002," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(2), pages 233-273.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gunther Maier (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ersa.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.