[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wus005/3609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Oberdabernig, Doris Anita
Abstract
Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract)

Suggested Citation

  • Oberdabernig, Doris Anita, 2012. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 144, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:3609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.wu.ac.at/3609/
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ,, 2001. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1157-1160, December.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, September.
    4. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 1997. "What Can New Survey Data Tell Us about Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 357-382, May.
    5. Nissanke, Machiko & Thorbecke, Erik, 2006. "Channels and policy debate in the globalization-inequality-poverty nexus," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1338-1360, August.
    6. Raymond Vreeland, James, 2002. "The Effect of IMF Programs on Labor," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 121-139, January.
    7. Morduch, Jonathan, 1994. "Poverty and Vulnerability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 221-225, May.
    8. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    9. Mr. Paul Cashin & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction: Stylized Facts and an Overview of Research," IMF Working Papers 2001/135, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Carlos A Leite & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2002. "Is Growth Enough? Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction," IMF Working Papers 2002/118, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1987. "The effects of IMF programs in the Third World: Debate and evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 249-262, February.
    12. Sebastian Edwards & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa05-1.
    13. Zlata Hajro & Joseph Joyce, 2009. "A true test: do IMF programs hurt the poor?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 295-306.
    14. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 889-910, July.
    15. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "The composition of growth matters for poverty alleviation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-151, September.
    16. Oecd, 2002. "Aid volume, channels and allocations for poverty reduction," OECD Journal on Development, OECD Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 33-46.
    17. Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?," IMF Working Papers 2006/239, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
    19. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1998. "New ways of looking at old issues: inequality and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 259-287.
    20. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
    21. Polak, J.J., 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 184, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    22. Ricardo Martin & Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2005. "Social Spending in IMF-supported Programs," Public Economics 0504011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Kenny, Charles & Williams, David, 2001. "What Do We Know About Economic Growth? Or, Why Don't We Know Very Much?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-22, January.
    24. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2006. "Evaluating the impact of IMF programs: A comparison of matching and instrumental-variable estimators," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 99-124, June.
    25. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
    26. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    27. Wood, Adrian & Ridao-Cano, Cristobal, 1999. "Skill, Trade, and International Inequality," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 89-119, January.
    28. repec:bla:scandj:v:81:y:1979:i:2:p:285-307 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    30. Omotunde Johnson & Joanne Salop, 1980. "Distributional Aspects of Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries (Les programmes de stabilisation des pays en développement examinés sous l'aspect de la répartition du revenu) (Los programa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, March.
    31. Li, Muqun & Coxhead, Ian, 2009. "Trade, Technology and Inequality in a Developing Country: Theory and Evidence from China," Staff Paper Series 539, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    32. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2001. "Inflation and the Poor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 160-178, May.
    33. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
    34. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    35. Paul Mosley & John Hudson & Arjan Verschoor, 2004. "Aid, Poverty Reduction and the 'New Conditionality'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages 217-243, June.
    36. Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1999. "The IMF's Role in Structural Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 634-651, November.
    37. Easterly, William, 2001. "The effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank programs on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2517, The World Bank.
    38. Harrigan, Jane & Wang, Chengang & El-Said, Hamed, 2006. "The economic and political determinants of IMF and world bank lending in the Middle East and North Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 247-270, February.
    39. Mattias Lundberg & Lyn Squire, 2003. "The simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 326-344, April.
    40. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 1998/169, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    42. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," LIS Working papers 496, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    43. Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1999. "The IMF's Role in Structural Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F634-51, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    2. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
    3. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    4. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.
    5. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    6. James Vreeland, 2006. "IMF program compliance: Aggregate index versus policy specific research strategies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 359-378, December.
    7. Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "IMF Lending in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis," Development Working Papers 305, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    8. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
    9. Mr. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gündüz & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 2013/273, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Luca Papi & Andrea F Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2015. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 644-691, November.
    11. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Laurence Allain & Giovanna Bua, 2014. "A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2017. "The Effect of IMF Programmes on Economic Growth in Low Income Countries: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2179-2196, December.
    13. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
    14. Binder, Michael & Bluhm, Marcel, 2017. "On the conditional effects of IMF program participation on output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 192-214.
    15. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    16. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
    17. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
    18. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Sokolova, Anna, 2021. "IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Valentin Lang, 2021. "The economics of the democratic deficit: The effect of IMF programs on inequality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 599-623, July.
    20. Bomprezzi, Pietro & Marchesi, Silvia, 2023. "A firm level approach on the effects of IMF programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty and income distribution; IMF lending programs; model uncertainty; treatment effects; cross-country analysis; developing countries; Internationale Währungsfonds; Wirtschaftspolitik; Auswirkung; Armut; soziale Ungleichheit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:3609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WU Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://research.wu.ac.at/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.