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Exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy - Evidence from a non-linear DSGE-VAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Huber, Florian
  • Rabitsch, Katrin
Abstract
In this paper, we reconsider the question how monetary policy influences exchange rate dynamics. To this end, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is combined with a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Instead of focusing exclusively on how monetary policy shocks affect the level of exchange rates, we also analyze how they impact exchange rate volatility. Since exchange rate volatility is not observed, we estimate it alongside the remaining quantities in the model. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to an appreciation of the home currency, with exchange rate responses in the short-run typically undershooting their long-run level of appreciation. They also lead to an increase in exchange rate volatility. Historical and forecast error variance decompositions indicate that monetary policy shocks explain an appreciable amount of exchange rate movements and the corresponding volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Huber, Florian & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy - Evidence from a non-linear DSGE-VAR approach," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 295, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:7210
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Exchange rate overshooting; stochastic volatility modeling; DSGE priors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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