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Growth, Inequality, and Poverty : A Robust Relationship?

Author

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  • Marrero,Gustavo Alberto
  • Serven,Luis
Abstract
An extensive literature on poverty traps suggests that high levels of poverty deter growth. However, a seemingly basic implication of the underlying theoretical models, namely that countries suffering from higher levels of poverty should grow less rapidly, has remained untested. A parallel literature has suggested a variety of mechanisms through which inequality may affect growth in opposing directions. Because inequality and poverty are different aspects of the income distribution, inequality can also affect growth through poverty, an indirect channel that has not been explicitly analyzed. This paper contributes to fill both gaps. Using a large cross-country panel data set, it estimates a reduced-form growth equation adding both inequality and poverty to an otherwise standard set of growth determinants. Given inequality, the correlation of growth with poverty is consistently negative. In contrast, given poverty, the correlation of growth with inequality can be positive or negative, depending on the empirical specification and econometric approach used. Yet, the indirect effect of inequality on growth through its correlation with poverty is robustly negative. Closer inspection shows that these results are driven by the sample observations featuring high (but not extremely high) poverty rates. These empirical findings are consistent with the predictions from an analytical framework with learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, in which consumers cannot save and invest if their initial endowment is below a minimum consumption level.

Suggested Citation

  • Marrero,Gustavo Alberto & Serven,Luis, 2018. "Growth, Inequality, and Poverty : A Robust Relationship?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8578, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8578
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Inflation; Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping; Poverty Assessment; Poverty Lines; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Poverty Diagnostics; Poverty Impact Evaluation; Educational Sciences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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