[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0556.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Employment Globalizing?

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Liming

    (Institute of International Economics, Nankai University.)

  • Felipe, Jesus

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Kam, Andrew J.Y.

    (National University of Malaysia)

  • Mehta, Aashish

    (University of California Santa Barbara)

Abstract
We investigate the claim that national labor markets have become more globally interconnected in recent decades. We do so by deriving estimates over time of three different notions of interconnection: (i) the share of labor demand that is export induced (i.e., all labor demand created by foreign entities buying products exported by the home country)—we provide estimates for 40 countries; (ii) the share of workers employed in sectors producing tradable goods or services—68 countries; and (iii) the ratio of the number of jobs that are either located in a tradable sector, or that are involved in producing services that are required by these tradable sectors, to all jobs in the economy, which we call the trade-linked employment share—40 countries. Our estimates lead to the conclusion that the evidence of a large increase in the interconnections between national labor markets is far weaker than commonly asserted: levels of interconnectivity, and the direction of changes over time, vary across notions of interconnection and countries. The main reasons for this are labordisplacing productivity growth in tradable sectors of each economy and the diminishing fraction of national labor forces hired into manufacturing jobs worldwide. We also discuss the implications of our results for different policy debates that each of the three measures is associated with: international coordination of macroeconomic policies (export-induced labor demand), currency devaluations (share of workers producing tradables), and education and labor protection (trade-linked share).

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2018. "Is Employment Globalizing?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 556, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/employment-globalizing
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dllek Cetindamar Kakaomerlioglu & Bo Carlsson, 1999. "Manufacturing In Decline? A Matter Of Definition," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 175-196.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    3. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area [Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549.
    4. Timon Bohn & Steven Brakman & Erik Dietzenbacher, 2018. "The role of services in globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2732-2749, October.
    5. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-128 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    8. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    9. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Introduction to "China's Growing Role in World Trade"," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 1-31, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Beine, Michel & Bos, Charles S. & Coulombe, Serge, 2012. "Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 468-492.
    12. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    14. Richard B. Freeman, 2007. "The Challenge of the Growing Globalization of Labor Markets to Economic and Social Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Eva Paus (ed.), Global Capitalism Unbound, chapter 0, pages 23-39, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Trefler, Daniel & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2010. "The structure of factor content predictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 195-207, November.
    16. Kazuhiro Sugie & Massimo Geloso Grosso & Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås & Sébastien Miroudot & Frédéric Gonzales & Dorothée Rouzet, 2015. "Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Logistics Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 183, OECD Publishing.
    17. Jason Dedrick & Kenneth L. Kraemer & Greg Linden, 2010. "Who profits from innovation in global value chains? A study of the iPod and notebook PCs," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(1), pages 81-116, February.
    18. Jeffry A. Frieden, 2014. "Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10364.
    19. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2005. "Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing," Working Paper Series WP05-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Li, Chao & Gibson, John, 2013. "Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artifact?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 16-29.
    21. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "How Many US Jobs Might be Offshorable?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 41-78, April.
    22. Michael Spence & Sandile Hlatshwayo, 2012. "The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 703-738, December.
    23. Rita A. Balaban & James Harrigan, 1999. "U.S. wages in general equilibrium: the effects of prices, technology and factor supplies, 1963-1991," Staff Reports 64, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Miroudot, Sébastien & Sauvage, Jehan & Shepherd, Ben, 2013. "Measuring the cost of international trade in services," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 719-735, October.
    25. J. Bradford Jensen, 2011. "Global Trade in Services: Fear, Facts, and Offshoring," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6017, April.
    26. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2013. "Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 97-128.
    27. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    28. Gervais, Antoine & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2019. "The tradability of services: Geographic concentration and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-350.
    29. Robert C. Feenstra & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "China's Growing Role in World Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen07-1.
    30. Richard B. Freeman, 2009. "Labor Regulations, Unions, and Social Protection in Developing Countries: Market distortions or Efficient Institutions?," NBER Working Papers 14789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Felipe, Jesus & Mehta, Aashish, 2016. "Deindustrialization? A global perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 148-151.
    32. Gereffi, Gary & Frederick, Stacey, 2010. "The global apparel value chain, trade and the crisis : challenges and opportunities for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5281, The World Bank.
    33. Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, 2016. "Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): The Trade Effect of Regulatory Differences," OECD Trade Policy Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    34. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, April.
    35. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2013. "Value added content of trade: A comprehensive approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 354-357.
    36. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 859-871, December.
    37. Feenstra, Robert C. & Wei, Shang-Jin (ed.), 2010. "China's Growing Role in World Trade," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226239712, September.
    38. Brown,Clair & Eichengreen,Barry J. & Reich,Michael (ed.), 2009. "Labor in the Era of Globalization," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521195416, September.
    39. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    40. Timmer, Marcel & Los, Bart & Vries, Gaaitzen J. de, 2012. "China and the World Economy:A Global Value Chain Perspective on Exports, Incomes and Jobs," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-128, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    41. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 206-221.
    42. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    43. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    44. Kym Anderson, 2010. "Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    45. Fiona Tregenna, 2010. "How significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in South Africa?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(5), pages 1427-1457, October.
    46. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Cheng, Charles Fang Chin & Smeets, Eveline, 2017. "The Importance of Manufacturing in Economic Development: Has This Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 293-315.
    47. Mathias Czaika & Hein Haas, 2014. "The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory?," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 283-323, June.
    48. Rachel Parker, 2000. "Industrial Transformation In Austria, Norway And Sweden," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 145-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.
    2. Candelaria, John Lee & Sharifi, Ayyoob & Simangan, Dahlia & Tabosa, Rebeca Maria Ramos, 2023. "A critical analysis of selected global sustainability assessment frameworks: Toward integrated approaches to peace and sustainability," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Fan, Jing-Li & Xu, Mao & Li, Fengyu & Yang, Lin & Zhang, Xian, 2018. "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China: The technology lock-in and cost optimization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 326-334.
    4. Shah, Ritesh & Cardozo, Mieke Lopes & Hjarrand, Jessica, 2024. "Learning as ecosystems: Shifting paradigms for more holistic programming in education and displacement," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Campbell, Robert M. & Anderson, Nathaniel M. & Daugaard, Daren E. & Naughton, Helen T., 2018. "Financial viability of biofuel and biochar production from forest biomass in the face of market price volatility and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 330-343.
    6. Valerie Mercer-Blackman & Christine Ablaza, 2018. "The Servicification of Manufacturing in Asia: Redefining the Sources of Labor Productivity," Working Papers id:12954, eSocialSciences.
    7. Bonassa, Antonio Carlos & Cunha, Claudio Barbieri da & Isler, Cassiano Augusto, 2023. "A multi-start local search heuristic for the multi-period auto-carrier loading and transportation problem in Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 193-211.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2020. "Wage response to global production links: evidence for workers from 28 European countries (2005–2014)," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 769-801, November.
    2. Milena Kern & Jörg Paetzold & Hannes Winner, 2021. "Cutting red tape for trade in services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2858-2886, October.
    3. Nazire Nergiz Dincer & Ayça Tekin‐Koru, 2020. "The effect of border barriers to services trade on goods trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2093-2118, August.
    4. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.
    5. Parteka, Aleksandra & Wolszczak-Derlacz, Joanna & Nikulin, Dagmara, 2024. "How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Philippe Frocrain & Pierre-Noël Giraud, 2017. "The evolution of tradable and non-tradable employment: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-01695159, HAL.
    7. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    8. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.
    9. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2018. "Structural modernisation and development traps. An empirical approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 59-73.
    10. Anirudh Shingal, 2023. "Mode 4 restrictiveness and services trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 757-786, August.
    11. Liu, Runjuan & Trefler, Daniel, 2019. "A sorted tale of globalization: White collar jobs and the rise of service offshoring," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 105-122.
    12. Wen Chen & Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer, 2017. "Factor Incomes in Global Value Chains: The Role of Intangibles," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 373-401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Daniel CHIQUIAR & Martín TOBAL & Renato YSLAS, 2019. "Measuring and understanding trade in service tasks," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 158(1), pages 169-190, March.
    14. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Elisabeth Christen & Michael Pfaffermayr & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2019. "Trade Costs in Services: Firm Survival, Firm Growth and Implied Changes in Employment," CESifo Working Paper Series 8008, CESifo.
    16. Marcel P Timmer & Sébastien Miroudot & Gaaitzen J de Vries, 2019. "Functional specialisation in trade," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30.
    17. Josep LLADÓS‐MASLLORENS & Antoni MESEGUER‐ARTOLA & Jordi VILASECA‐REQUENA, 2021. "Upskilling and distributional changes in the electronics global value chain," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 160(1), pages 113-142, March.
    18. Reijnders, Laurie S.M. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2018. "Technology, offshoring and the rise of non-routine jobs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 412-432.
    19. Eppinger, Peter S., 2019. "Service offshoring and firm employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 209-228.
    20. Alessandro Nuvolari & Emanuele Russo, 2019. "Technical progress and structural change: a long-term view," LEM Papers Series 2019/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; export induced; globalization; tradable goods; trade-linked employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.