[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98233.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Productivity and Unemployment Effects of the Digital Transformation: an Empirical and Modelling Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Bertani, Filippo
  • Raberto, Marco
  • Teglio, Andrea
Abstract
Since the last 30 years, the economy has been undergoing a massive digital transformation. Intangible digital assets, like software solutions, web services, and more recently deep learning algorithms, artificial intelligence and digital platforms, have been increasingly adopted thanks to the diffusion and advancements of information and communication technologies. Various observers argue that we could rapidly approach a technological singularity leading to explosive economic growth. The contribution of this paper is on the empirical and the modelling side. First, we present a cross-country empirical analysis assessing the correlation between intangible digital assets and different measures of productivity. Then we figure out their long-term impact on unemployment under different scenarios by means of an agent-based macro-model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertani, Filippo & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2020. "The Productivity and Unemployment Effects of the Digital Transformation: an Empirical and Modelling Assessment," MPRA Paper 98233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98233/1/MPRA_paper_98233.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "Innovation, Employment and Skills in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Survey of Economic Literature," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 123-154.
    2. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
    3. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    5. Charles Edquist & Leif Hommen & Maureen McKelvey, 2001. "Innovation and Employment," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2138.
    6. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    7. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. James Bessen, 2018. "AI and Jobs: the role of demand," NBER Working Papers 24235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Giovanni DOSI & Maria Enrica VIRGILLITO, 2019. "Whither the evolution of the contemporary social fabric? New technologies and old socio‐economic trends," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 158(4), pages 593-625, December.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Low-Skill and High-Skill Automation," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 204-232.
    11. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    12. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and credit market regulation in the Eurace model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 429-465, March.
    13. Marko Petrovic & Bulent Ozel & Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2017. "Eurace Open: An agent-based multi-country model," Working Papers 2017/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    14. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Benjamin F. Jones & Charles I. Jones, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 237-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Anna Thum-Thysen & Peter Voigt & Benat Bilbao-Osorio & Christoph Maier & Diana Ognyanova, 2017. "Unlocking Investment in Intangible Assets," European Economy - Discussion Papers 047, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    19. W. Brian Arthur, 2010. "Complexity, the Santa Fe approach, and non-equilibrium economics," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 149-166.
    20. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2018. "Securitization and business cycle: an agent-based perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1091-1121.
    21. Farrell, Joseph & Klemperer, Paul, 2007. "Coordination and Lock-In: Competition with Switching Costs and Network Effects," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1967-2072, Elsevier.
    22. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, March.
    23. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Goldstein, Jonathan, 1986. "Markup Variability and Flexibility: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 599-621, October.
    25. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2021. "The complexity of the intangible digital economy: an agent-based model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 527-540.
    26. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    27. Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2018. "An Agent-based Stock-flow Consistent Model of the Sustainable Transition in the Energy Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 274-300.
    28. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, March.
    29. Fraser, Robert W, 1985. "Uncertainty and the Theory of Mark-up Pricing," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 55-64, January.
    30. DeCanio, Stephen J., 2016. "Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 280-291.
    31. Ben Vermeulen & Jan Kesselhut & Andreas Pyka & Pier Paolo Saviotti, 2018. "The Impact of Automation on Employment: Just the Usual Structural Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-27, May.
    32. William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 299-332, January.
    33. Roth, Felix, 2019. "Intangible Capital and Labour Productivity Growth: A Review of the Literature," Hamburg Discussion Papers in International Economics 4, University of Hamburg, Department of Economics.
    34. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    35. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    36. Blake LeBaron & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2008. "Modeling Macroeconomies as Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 246-250, May.
    37. Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2012. "The Impact Of Banks' Capital Adequacy Regulation On The Economic System: An Agent-Based Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-27.
    38. Teglio, Andrea & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 59-83.
    39. Haskel, J & Goodridge, P & Wallis, G, 2012. "UK Innovation Index: productivity and growth in UK industries," Working Papers 9786, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    40. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    41. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    42. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Eliana Lauretta & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2020. "Systemic financial risk indicators and securitised assets: an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 9-47, January.
    43. Petit, Pascal, 1993. "Employment and technical change," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9330, CEPREMAP.
    44. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2012. "Debt, deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-49.
    45. Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2017. "Technological Change and Employment: Were Ricardo and Marx Right?," IZA Discussion Papers 10471, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    46. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    47. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2012. "Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery," NBER Working Papers 18629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. James Bessen, 2019. "Automation and jobs: when technology boosts employment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 589-626.
    49. Amat Adarov & Robert Stehrer, 2019. "Tangible and Intangible Assets in the Growth Performance of the EU, Japan and the US," wiiw Research Reports 442, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    50. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    51. Arthur, W. Brian, 2006. "Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 32, pages 1551-1564, Elsevier.
    52. Benjamin A. T. Graham & Jacob R. Tucker, 2019. "The international political economy data resource," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 149-161, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2023. "Effects of technological change and automation on industry structure and (wage-)inequality: insights from a dynamic task-based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 35-63, January.
    2. Saeed Nosratabadi & Thabit Atobishi & Szilard HegedHus, 2023. "Social Sustainability of Digital Transformation: Empirical Evidence from EU-27 Countries," Papers 2305.16088, arXiv.org.
    3. Gebs, Mehdi & Nabi, Mahmoud Sami, 2021. "The economic impacts of digitalization through an extended input-output model: theory and application to Tunisia," MPRA Paper 113299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Florent Bordot & André Lorentz, 2021. "Automation and labor market polarization in an evolutionary model with heterogeneous workers," Working Papers of BETA 2021-39, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Jacopo Di Domenico & Alberto Russo, 2022. "Innovation, growth, and productivity appropriation. How the elites learned to stop worrying and love public debt," Working Papers 2022/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Katarzyna Gruszka & Manuel Scholz-Wäckerle & Ernest Aigner, 2020. "Planetary carambolage: The evolutionary political economy of technology, nature and work," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 273-293, November.
    7. Pengyu Chen & Yuanyuan Hao, 2022. "Digital transformation and corporate environmental performance: The moderating role of board characteristics," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 1757-1767, September.
    8. Iqbal, Qaisar & Piwowar-Sulej, Katarzyna, 2024. "Technological social responsibility: A stakeholder theory-based measurement scale," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2022. "Technological paradigms, labour creation and destruction in a multi-sector agent-based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    10. Yasin Yilmaz, 2021. "Transition to the Digital Economy, Its Measurement and the Relationship between Digitalization and Productivity," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 283-316, June.
    11. Lei Wang & Shibo Liu & Wanfang Xiong, 2022. "The Impact of Digital Transformation on Corporate Environment Performance: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Marcello Nieddu & Filippo Bertani & Linda Ponta, 2022. "The sustainability transition and the digital transformation: two challenges for agent-based macroeconomic models," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 193-226, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nieddu, Marcello & Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda, 2021. "Sustainability transition and digital trasformation: an agent-based perspective," MPRA Paper 106943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2021. "The complexity of the intangible digital economy: an agent-based model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 527-540.
    3. Marcello Nieddu & Filippo Bertani & Linda Ponta, 2022. "The sustainability transition and the digital transformation: two challenges for agent-based macroeconomic models," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 193-226, April.
    4. Bertani, Filippo & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2021. "Digital Innovation and its Potential Consequences: the Elasticity Augmenting Approach," MPRA Paper 105326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "An economy under the digital transformation," MPRA Paper 94205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mario Pianta, 2018. "Technology and Employment: Twelve Stylised Facts for the Digital Age," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 189-225, June.
    7. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8448a5ts5gt5ade0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    12. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    13. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    14. Barbieri, Laura & Mussida, Chiara & Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2019. "Testing the employment and skill impact of new technologies: A survey and some methodological issues," MERIT Working Papers 2019-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Artificial Intelligence, Growth and Employment: The Role of Policy," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 149-164.
    16. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    17. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    18. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the Digital Divide: Workers' Exposure to Digitalization and Its Consequences for Individual Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 14649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Alonso, Cristian & Berg, Andrew & Kothari, Siddharth & Papageorgiou, Chris & Rehman, Sidra, 2022. "Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 18-37.
    20. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    21. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2018. "Artificial intelligence, jobs, inequality and productivity: Does aggregate demand matter?," MERIT Working Papers 2018-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intangible assets; Digital transformation; Total factor productivity; Technological unemployment; Agent-based economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.