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Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test

Author

Listed:
  • Andriansyah, Andriansyah
  • Messinis, George
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to test the hypothesis that portfolio model predicts a negative correlation between stock prices and exchange rates in a trivariate transmission channel for foreign portfolio equity investment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper utilizes panel data for eight economies to extend the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger non-causality test of heterogeneous panels to a trivariate model by integrating the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Findings – The evidence suggests that stock prices Granger-cause exchange rates and portfolio equity flows Granger-cause exchange rates. However, the overall panel evidence casts doubt on the explicit trivariate model of portfolio balance model. The study shows that Indonesia may be the only case where stock prices affect exchange rates through portfolio equity flows. Research limitations/implications – The proposed test does not account for potential asymmetries or structural shifts associated with the crisis period. To isolate the impact of the Asian Financial crisis, this paper rather splits the sample period into two sub-periods: pre- and post-crises. The sample period and countries are also limited due to the use of the balance of payment statistics. Practical implications – The study casts doubt on the maintained hypothesis of a trivariate transmission channel, as posited by the portfolio model. Policy makers of an economy may integrate capital market and fiscal policies in order to maintain stable exchange rate. Originality/value – This paper integrates a portfolio equity inflow variable into a single framework with stock price and exchange rate variables. It extends the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) bivariate stationary Granger non-causality test in heterogeneous panels to a trivariate setting in the framework of Toda and Yamamoto (1995).

Suggested Citation

  • Andriansyah, Andriansyah & Messinis, George, 2019. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test," MPRA Paper 97992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael A Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Post-Print halshs-01524462, HAL.
    3. Ming Qi & Jing Xu & Nnenna Bridget Amuji & Shumingrui Wang & Fengqian Xu & Huan Zhou, 2022. "The Nexus among Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Trade Openness: Evidence from West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Theodora Sotiropoulou & Stefanos Giakoumatos & Antonios Georgopoulos, 2023. "Financial development, economic growth, and income inequality: a Toda-Yamamoto panel causality test," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 172-185.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; Exchange rates; Stock prices; Heterogeneous panels; Portfolio equity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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