[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/82846.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia: An Asymmetry Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen
  • Maki Nayeri, Majid
Abstract
Previous research considered impacts of monetary and output uncertainty on the demand for money in Australia using a linear model and found that while output volatility has significantly positive effects, money supply volatility does not. Furthermore, predictive power of the linear model was very low. In this paper we use a nonlinear model and a new measure of uncertainty known as policy uncertainty and show that this new measure has significantly long-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Australia. Due to nonlinear adjustment of policy uncertainty measure, the new nonlinear model has a very high predictive power. The adjusted R2 moves from 0.30 in the linear model to 0.80 in the nonlinear model.

Suggested Citation

  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia: An Asymmetry Analysis," MPRA Paper 82846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82846/1/MPRA_paper_82846.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    2. Nazif Durmaz, 2015. "Industry levelJ-curve in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 689-706, September.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Hamid Baghestani & Samer Kherfi, 2015. "An error-correction modeling of US consumer spending: are there asymmetries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1078-1094, November.
    5. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani, 2005. "Modelling Demand For Broad Money In Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 47-64, March.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2014. "Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and the Demand for Money: Evidence From Asian Countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 16-28, June.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Alice Kones, 2014. "Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and the Demand for Money in Africa," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(4), pages 293-313.
    10. Luiz Lima & Claudio Foffano Vasconcelos & Jose Simão & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2016. "The quantitative easing effect on the stock market of the USA, the UK and Japan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(6), pages 1006-1021, November.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2011. "Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty And The Demand For Money In Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 115-128, December.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Kaveepot Satawatananon & Dan Xi, 2015. "Economic uncertainty, monetary uncertainty, and the demand for money in Thailand," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(4), pages 467-476.
    14. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & S. Chomsisengphet, 2002. "Stability of M2 money demand function in industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(16), pages 2075-2083.
    15. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 1272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Imke Brüggemann & Dieter Nautz, 1997. "Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 523-537, September.
    17. repec:bla:ausecp:v:40:y:2001:i:2:p:146-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2015. "Are there asymmetries in fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 303-321, May.
    19. Bruce Felmingham & Qing Zhang, 2001. "The Long Run Demand for Broad Money in Australia Subject to Regime Shifts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 146-155, June.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2016. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 51-70, February.
    21. Arango, Sebastian & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1981. "Demand for money in open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 69-83.
    22. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali M. Kutan & Dan Xi, 2013. "The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3278-3287, August.
    24. Karfakis, Costas I & Parikh, Ashok, 1993. "A Cointegration Approach to Monetary Targeting in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(60), pages 53-72, June.
    25. Andros Gregoriou, 2017. "Modelling non-linear behaviour of block price deviations when trades are executed outside the bid-ask quotes," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 206-213, May.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    27. Choi, Woon Gyu & Oh, Seonghwan, 2003. "A Money Demand Function with Output Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and Financial Innovations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 685-709, October.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi & Yongqing Wang, 2012. "Economic and Monetary Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 26-37, November.
    29. Abdulrahman Al-Shayeb & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2016. "Trade openness and economic development in the UAE: an asymmetric approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 587-597, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 219-234, April.
    3. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on demand for money in developed countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Demir, Ender & Simonyan, Serdar & García-Gómez, Conrado-Diego & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of bitcoin on altcoins: evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    5. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Gurcan Aygun & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1741-1769, October.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the United Kingdom: Are the effects asymmetric?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 76-84.
    8. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    11. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    12. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R. & Mba, Ifeoma C. & Ojonta, Obed I. & Orji, Anthony, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    13. Long, Shaobo & Zuo, Yulan & Tian, Hao, 2023. "Asymmetries in multi-target monetary policy rule and the role of uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 278-296.
    14. Xiaoyue Chen & Bin Li & Andrew C. Worthington, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3441-3474, September.
    15. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar & Arwatchanakarn, Popkarn, 2020. "The effect of economic uncertainty on narrow money demand and its stability in New Zealand: An empirical investigation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 88-100.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 219-234, April.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.K. and China: An Asymmetric Analysis," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 41-65, January.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2021. "U.S. – Italy commodity trade and the J-curve: new evidence from asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-103, February.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2021. "Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2020. "On the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on domestic investment in G7 countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 303-318, December.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Motavallizadeh-Ardakani, Amid, 2017. "On the value of the dollar and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 64-78.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 429-482, May.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "Asymmetric response of domestic production to exchange rate changes: evidence from Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2018. "The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 350-389, September.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Harvey Hanafiah, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the United Kingdom: Are the effects asymmetric?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 76-84.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Amr Hosny, 2019. "Kazakhstan trade with its partners and the role of tenge: an asymmetric analysis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 493-513, December.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Maki Nayeri, Majid & Niroomand, Farhang, 2019. "On the link between real effective value of Tunisia’s Dinar and its sectoral trade with the rest of the world: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 111-118.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Demand; Australia; Policy Uncertainty; Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.