[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/77486.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models

Author

Listed:
  • Bartolucci, Francesco
  • Pigini, Claudia
Abstract
Strict exogeneity of covariates other than the lagged dependent variable, and conditional on unobserved heterogeneity, is often required for consistent estimation of binary panel data models. This assumption is likely to be violated in practice because of feedback effects from the past of the outcome variable on the present value of covariates and no general solution is yet available. In this paper, we provide the conditions for a logit model formulation that takes into account feedback effects without specifying a joint parametric model for the outcome and predetermined explanatory variables. Our formulation is based on the equivalence between Granger's definition of noncausality and a modification of the Sims' strict exogeneity assumption for nonlinear panel data models, introduced by Chamberlain1982 and for which we provide a more general theorem. We further propose estimating the model parameters with a recent fixed-effects approach based on pseudo conditional inference, adapted to the present case, thereby taking care of the correlation between individual permanent unobserved heterogeneity and the model's covariates as well. Our results hold for short panels with a large number of cross-section units, a case of great interest in microeconomic applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartolucci, Francesco & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," MPRA Paper 77486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77486
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77486/1/MPRA_paper_77486.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2011. "Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 641-668, June.
    3. Florens, J.P. & Mouchart, M., 1982. "A note on noncausality," LIDAM Reprints CORE 479, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    5. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116, November.
    6. Christoph Wunder & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit amongst natives and immigrants," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 580-604.
    7. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Ownership of Stocks and Mutual Funds: A Panel Data Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 783-796, August.
    8. Giarda, Elena, 2013. "Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3425-3434.
    9. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Steady streams and sudden bursts: persistence patterns in remittance decisions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 263-292, January.
    10. Jesus M. Carro & Alejandra Traferri, 2014. "State Dependence And Heterogeneity In Health Using A Bias‐Corrected Fixed‐Effects Estimator," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 181-207, March.
    11. Bo E. Honore & Arthur Lewbel, 2002. "Semiparametric Binary Choice Panel Data Models Without Strictly Exogeneous Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 2053-2063, September.
    12. D. R. Cox, 1972. "The Analysis of Multivariate Binary Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 21(2), pages 113-120, June.
    13. Alpaslan Akay, 2012. "Finite‐sample comparison of alternative methods for estimating dynamic panel data models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1189-1204, November.
    14. Paul Contoyannis & Andrew M. Jones & Nigel Rice, 2004. "Simulation-based inference in dynamic panel probit models: An application to health," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 49-77, January.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:187:p:247-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Timothy J. Halliday, 2008. "Heterogeneity, state dependence and health," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 499-516, November.
    17. Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2009. "Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 975-991, May.
    18. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    19. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    20. Bartolucci, Francesco & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "cquad: An R and Stata Package for Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Binary Panel Data Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 78(i07).
    21. Mosconi, Rocco & Seri, Raffaello, 2006. "Non-causality in bivariate binary time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 379-407, June.
    22. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    23. Florens, J P & Mouchart, M, 1982. "A Note on Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 583-591, May.
    24. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina, 2012. "Pseudo conditional maximum likelihood estimation of the dynamic logit model for binary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 102-116.
    25. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    26. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    27. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    29. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro, 2010. "A Dynamic Model for Binary Panel Data With Unobserved Heterogeneity Admitting a √n-Consistent Conditional Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 719-733, March.
    30. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
    31. Florian Heiss, 2011. "Dynamics of self-rated health and selective mortality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 119-140, February.
    32. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    33. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    34. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "The General Equivalence of Granger and Sims Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 569-581, May.
    35. Pigini, Claudia & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2016. "State dependence in access to credit," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 17-34.
    36. Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
    37. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    38. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Taylor, Karl, 2014. "The existence and persistence of household financial hardship: A Bayesian multivariate dynamic logit framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 285-298.
    39. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    40. Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh & Karl Taylor, 2012. "The Existence and Persistence of Household Financial Hardship," Working Papers 2012022, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    41. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    42. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
    43. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    44. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "DPB: Dynamic Panel Binary Data Models in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i08).
    2. Pigini, Claudia & Bartolucci, Francesco, 2022. "Conditional inference for binary panel data models with predetermined covariates," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 83-104.
    3. Pigini, Claudia & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2016. "State dependence in access to credit," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 17-34.
    4. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    5. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro & Claudia Pigini, 2018. "Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates by a modified quadratic exponential model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 61-88, January.
    6. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini & Francesco Valentini, 2023. "Conditional inference and bias reduction for partial effects estimation of fixed-effects logit models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2290, May.
    7. Fu Ouyang & Thomas Tao Yang, 2020. "Semiparametric Estimation of Dynamic Binary Choice Panel Data Models," Discussion Papers Series 626, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Williams, Benjamin, 2020. "Nonparametric identification of discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 286-304.
    9. Fu Ouyang & Thomas Tao Yang, 2020. "Semiparametric Estimation of Dynamic Binary Choice Panel Data Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2020-671, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    10. Fu Ouyang & Thomas Tao Yang, 2022. "Semiparametric Estimation of Dynamic Binary Choice Panel Data Models," Papers 2202.12062, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    11. Shiu, Ji-Liang & Hu, Yingyao, 2013. "Identification and estimation of nonlinear dynamic panel data models with unobserved covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 116-131.
    12. Lionel WILNER, 2019. "The Dynamics of Individual Happiness," Working Papers 2019-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    13. Majid M. Al-Sadoon & Tong Li & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2017. "Exponential class of dynamic binary choice panel data models with fixed effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 898-927, October.
    14. Martin Biewen, 2009. "Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1095-1116, November.
    15. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    16. John Roy & Stefanie Schurer, 2013. "Getting Stuck In The Blues: Persistence Of Mental Health Problems In Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(9), pages 1139-1157, September.
    17. Fernández-Val, Iván, 2009. "Fixed effects estimation of structural parameters and marginal effects in panel probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 71-85, May.
    18. Fernández-Val, Iván & Vella, Francis, 2011. "Bias corrections for two-step fixed effects panel data estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 144-162, August.
    19. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Steady streams and sudden bursts: persistence patterns in remittance decisions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 263-292, January.
    20. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Majid al Sadoon, 2020. "Consistent estimation of panel data sample selection models," Working Papers 2020-06, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fixed effects; noncausality; predetermined covariates; pseudo-conditional inference; strict exogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.