[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/48494.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Asongu, Simplice A
Abstract
Purpose – While in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. In this paper, we examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period 1987-2010. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – But for slight exceptions, the tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence. Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception Hypothesis 1 is valid. Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real GDP output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical Implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country/regional specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity, caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Asongu, Simplice A, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," MPRA Paper 48494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48494
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48494/1/MPRA_paper_48494.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "How has Mobile Phone Penetration Stimulated Financial Development in Africa?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 7-18, April.
    2. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    3. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    4. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "Are proposed African monetary unions optimal currency areas? Real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence analysis," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 9-29, April.
    5. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 238-242, May.
    6. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2011. "Working Paper 133 - Monetary Policy Transmission, House Prices and Consumer Spending in South Africa: An SVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 317, African Development Bank.
    7. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 12/011, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    9. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, 2009. "Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2432-2437.
    10. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    12. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    13. Serletis, Apostolos & Koustas, Zisimos, 1998. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real and Monetary Policy Convergence Analysis," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 12/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    15. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    16. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 64-73, April.
    17. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    19. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "African financial development dynamics: big time convergence," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 160-194, July.
    20. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
    21. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    24. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Policy Focus: Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 166-190, September.
    25. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \"M\" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-155, June.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:139-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    30. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-352, June.
    32. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 542-557.
    33. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2008. "Open economy inflation targeting arrangements and monetary policy rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 237-251, September.
    34. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:213-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    36. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    37. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    38. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    39. Simplice ASONGU, 2011. "Why Do French Civil Law Countries Have Higher Levels Of Financial Efficiency," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 94-108.
    40. Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Malawi," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 224-250, September.
    41. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    42. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
    43. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
    44. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    45. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q2), pages 32-43.
    47. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
    48. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    49. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money-Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    50. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    51. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    52. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    53. Narayan Kishor & John Ssozi, 2010. "Inflation convergence and currency unions: the case of the East African community," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 36-52, April.
    54. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 166-192, September.
    56. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/115, International Monetary Fund.
    57. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    58. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    59. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Lambert Nguena & Roger Tsafack Nanfosso, 2013. "Facteurs Microeconomiques du Deficit de Financement des PME au Cameroun," AAYE Policy Research Working Paper Series 13_004, Association of African Young Economists, revised Nov 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "New empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 164-204, June.
    2. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "How Would Monetary Policy Matter In The Proposed African Monetary Unions? Evidence From Output And Prices," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 34-63.
    3. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 64-73, April.
    4. Asongu, Simplice A., 2014. "A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6.
    5. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," MPRA Paper 41553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "How Would Population Growth Affect Investment in the Future? Asymmetric Panel Causality Evidence for Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 14-29.
    7. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.
    8. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2020. "The comparative African regional economics of globalization in financial allocation efficiency: the pre-crisis era revisited," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, December.
    10. M. Agovino, 2014. "What are the main explanations of occupational diseases and accidents at work in the agricultural sector? A panel analysis for Italian regional data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 1045-1073, March.
    11. Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2015. "The Comparative African Regional Economics of Globalization in Financial Allocation Efficiency," MPRA Paper 71173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    13. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Liddle, Brantley & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2018. "The impact of international trade on CO2 emissions in oil exporting countries: Territory vs consumption emissions accounting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-350.
    14. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 102-115.
    15. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries," MPRA Paper 80776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Shrestha, Santosh & Kotani, Koji & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2021. "The relationship between trade openness and government resource revenue in resource-dependent countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Yi Hu & Dongmei Guo & Mingxi Wang & Xi Zhang & Shouyang Wang, 2015. "The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from China’s Industrial Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-15, August.
    19. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.