[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pid/wpaper/2016144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mehak Moazam

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract
The study attempted to investigate the determinants of inflation in case of Pakistan and to check the validity of monetarist stance that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon by investigating the impact of oil prices, M2 and GDP on prices. The descriptive analysis shows there is strong correlation between money supply and prices and also between GDP and prices while the correlation between oil prices and CPI is (0.60) less as compare to other variables. The important finding of the paper is that oil prices have short run impact on inflation whereas money supply is the long run determinant of inflation in case of Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehak Moazam & M. Ali Kemal, 2016. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices," PIDE-Working Papers 2016:144, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2016:144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-144.pdf
    File Function: First Version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1989. "Inflation And Growth An Analysis Of Recent Trends In Pakistan," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 1989:1.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Abdul Qayyum & Faiz Bilquees, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 117-129.
    5. Laidler, David, 1997. "The Wicksell Connection, The Quantity Theory and Keynes," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 9708, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    6. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    7. Peter Hoeller & Pierre Poret, 1991. "P-Star as an Indicator of Inflationary Pressure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 08, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    10. Muhammad Azam & Salim Rashid, 2015. "The monetarist hypothesis of inflation in Pakistan – a critique," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 559-576, October.
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-8.
    12. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    13. M. Ali Kemal, 2006. "Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 213-220.
    14. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 2008/270, International Monetary Fund.
    15. M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan & Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Ajaz Rasheed, 1995. "What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 927-943.
    16. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    17. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry & Munir A. S. Choudhary, 2006. "Why the State Bank of Pakistan should not Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 195-209.
    18. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2013. "Quarterisation of National Income Accounts of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 9, pages 1-61.
    19. Dallas S. Batten, 1981. "Inflation: the cost-push myth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 63(Jun), pages 20-27.
    20. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    21. Julio H. G. Olivera, 1964. "On Structural Inflation And Latin-American 'Structuralism'," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 321-332.
    22. Tahira Ishaq & Hassan M. Mohsin, 2015. "Deficits and inflation; Are monetary and financial institutions worthy to consider or not?," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 180-191, September.
    23. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1.
    24. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Introduction to "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods, pages 1-85, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    26. Faiz Bilquees, 1988. "Inflation in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence on the Monetarist and Structuralist Hypotheses," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 109-129.
    27. Sadia Tahir, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 319-342.
    28. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    29. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    30. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q2), pages 32-43.
    31. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 35-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ayyoub & Julia Wörz, 2019. "What Drives Inflation-Output Tradeoff Dynamics in Pakistan? An Assessment of International Linkages and Global Trends," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 55-81, Jan-June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    3. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    4. Nicas Yabu & Nicholaus J. Kessy, 2015. "Appropriate Threshold Level of Inflation for Economic Growth: Evidence from the Three Founding EAC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 127-144, August.
    5. Adnan Haider & Qazi Masood Ahmed & Zohaib Jawed, 2014. "Determinants of Energy Inflation in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 491-504.
    6. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    7. Siffat Mushtaq & Abdul Rashid & Abdul Qayyum, 2012. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 61-96.
    8. Nazir, Sidra & Saeed, Saira & Muhammad, Atta, 2017. "Threshold Modeling for Inflation and GDP Growth," MPRA Paper 79649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons for Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 337-356.
    10. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    11. Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "Role of Demand and Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Khan, Abdul Aleem & Ahmed, Qazi Masood & Hyder, Kalim, 2007. "Determinants oF Recent Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16254, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    13. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
    14. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    15. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    16. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    17. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    18. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2017. "The Recent Inflation Crisis and Long-run Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Survey of Threshold Level of Inflation," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 105-132, June.
    19. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    20. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2016:144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.