[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pbs/ecofin/2024-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Lilian Muchimba

    (Bank of Zambia)

  • Mimoza Shabani

    (University of East London)

  • Alexis Stenfors

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Jan Toporowski

    (University of Portsmouth)

Abstract
The paper adopts a TVP-VAR methodology to investigate the dynamics of inflation components for three countries: the UK, the US and Japan from 1993 to 2023. We deconstruct the CPI into components to examine the actual price changes that make up the CPI and the degree to which changes in those prices influence each other. By doing so, we uncover the connectedness and spillovers between domestic inflation components. We find that whilst connectedness of price changes has been moderate over the last three decades it has increased significantly since the CPI started to soar in late 2021, suggesting the existence of a spillover effect among price-setting firms in the economy. Furthermore, our empirical evidence shows that the transmission mechanism across domestic CPI components varies significantly across countries and over time. From a monetary policy perspective, the findings suggest that a signalling process among consumer market producers complements the signalling by central banks in relation to inflation. Lastly, the cross-country variations over time imply that “no size fits all”, thus emphasizing the importance of domestic spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilian Muchimba & Mimoza Shabani & Alexis Stenfors & Jan Toporowski, 2024. "Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2024-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.port.ac.uk/EconFinance/PBSEconFin_2024_04.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriele Camera & Yili Chien, 2014. "Understanding the Distributional Impact of Long‐Run Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1137-1170, September.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
    6. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Alexis Stenfors & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2022. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy Focal Points," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 348-355, April.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    10. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling Demand and Supply Factors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 191-230, March.
    12. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    14. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    15. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    18. Thomas J. Fisher & Colin M. Gallagher, 2012. "New Weighted Portmanteau Statistics for Time Series Goodness of Fit Testing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(498), pages 777-787, June.
    19. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
    20. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Alexis Stenfors & Lilian Muchimba, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanism of Stress in the International Banking System," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2023-03, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    3. Lilian Muchimba, 2022. "Connectedness of money market instruments: A time-varying vector autoregression approach," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2022-07, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    4. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Cunado, Juncal & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Hardik, Marfatia, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    8. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
    11. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Elie Bouri & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Harald Kinateder, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Spillovers across European and North American Economies," Working Papers 202304, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    19. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    20. Ha, Le Thanh & Bouteska, Ahmed & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & The Anh, Pham, 2023. "Fluctuations in gold prices in Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a time-varying parameter autoregression model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Prices; Dynamic Connectedness; Inflation; Monetary policy; Signalling; TVP-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2024-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shuonan Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depbsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.