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The Evolution of Monetary Policy Focal Points

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  • Alexis Stenfors
  • Ioannis Chatziantoniou
  • David Gabauer
Abstract
With near-zero policy rates becoming the norm in many advanced economies, the focus on long-term bond yields has strengthened considerably. The unconventional monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in September 2016 to explicitly target the ten-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield institutionalized this process—by effectively creating a new monetary policy focal point. In this article, we study the importance of such focal points. Empirically, we also investigate how JGB benchmark maturities ranging from one to thirty years has affected other benchmark maturities over time. We find that the ten-year bond, indeed, became more influential in 2016. However, the effect was surprisingly short-lived. The results suggest that once financial market participants anchored their expectations of the ten-year JGB yield to the new BOJ target, the attention merely shifted towards even longer maturities. Contrary to the logic of the monetary transmission mechanism, we also find the short end of the yield curve has been an absorber, rather than transmitter, of influence during the last decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Stenfors & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2022. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy Focal Points," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 348-355, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:jeciss:v:56:y:2022:i:2:p:348-355
    DOI: 10.1080/00213624.2022.2050149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Stenfors, Alexis, 2018. "Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: Competition, collusion or a convention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-97.
    3. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Stenfors, Alexis, 2014. "LIBOR deception and central bank forward (mis-)guidance: Evidence from Norway during 2007–2011," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 452-472.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stenfors, Alexis & Dilshani, Kaveesha & Guo, Andy & Mere, Peter, 2024. "Detecting the risk of cross-product manipulation in the EUREX fixed income futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Alberola, Enrique & Cheng, Gong & Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Alexis Stenfors & Kaveesha Dilshani & Andy Guo & Peter Mere, 2023. "A Model to Quantify the Risk of Cross-Product Manipulation: Evidence from the European Government Bond Futures Market," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2023-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    4. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Lilian Muchimba & Mimoza Shabani & Alexis Stenfors & Jan Toporowski, 2024. "Decomposing the Rate of Inflation: Price-Setting and Monetary Policy," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Lilian Muchimba, 2022. "Connectedness of money market instruments: A time-varying vector autoregression approach," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2022-07, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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