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Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner

    (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Barcelona GSE)

  • Daragh Clancy

    (ESM)

  • Alberto Martin

    (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Barcelona GSE)

  • Aitor Erce

    (ESM)

Abstract
This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic consumption and investment. Thus, these crowding-out effects are likely to be weaker when public debt is purchased by foreigners. We test this hypothesis on (i) post-war US data and (ii) data for a panel of 17 advanced economies from the 1980s to the present. To do so, we assemble a novel database of public debt holdings by domestic and foreign creditors for a large set of advanced economies. We combine this data with standard measures of fiscal policy shocks and show that, indeed, the size of fiscal multipliers is increasing in the share of public debt held by foreigners. In particular, the fiscal multiplier is smaller than one when the foreign share is low, such as in the U.S. in the 1950s and 1960s and Japan today, and larger than one when the foreign share is high, such as in the U.S. and Ireland today.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Alberto Martin & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt," Working Papers 30, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; fiscal multiplier; foreign holdings of public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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