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Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Bordalo
  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Andrei Shleifer
Abstract
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and offers a unified view of a great deal of data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 30356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30356
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," ISER Discussion Paper 1249, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    3. Machado, Caio, 2023. "Managing Overreaction During a Run," MPRA Paper 117896, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2023.
    4. Campiglio, Emanuele & Lamperti, Francesco & Terranova, Roberta, 2024. "Believe me when I say green! Heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Niemann, Stefan & Prein, Timm, 2024. "Sovereign Risk under Diagnostic Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Konstantin von Beringe & Mark Whitmeyer, 2024. "The Perils of Overreaction," Papers 2405.08087, arXiv.org.
    9. Matteo Bizzarri & Daniele d'Arienzo, 2023. "The social value of overreaction to information," CSEF Working Papers 690, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    10. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Agrrawal, Pankaj & Agarwal, Rajat, 2023. "A Longer-Term evaluation of Information releases by Influential market Agents and the Semi-strong market Efficiency," EconStor Preprints 273555, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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