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The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View

Author

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  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
  • Adam M. Guren
  • Timothy J. McQuade
Abstract
With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but a boom-bust- rebound. Using a spatial equilibrium regression in which house prices are determined by income, amenities, urbanization, and supply, we show that long-run city-level fundamentals predict not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound. This evidence motivates our model of a cycle rooted in fundamentals. Households learn about fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic in the boom due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single shock and accounts quantitatively for the dynamics of prices, rents, and foreclosures in cities with the largest cycles. We draw implications for asset cycles more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Adam M. Guren & Timothy J. McQuade, 2021. "The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View," NBER Working Papers 29140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29140
    Note: AP EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
    2. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
    3. Jonathan J Adams, 2023. "Equilibrium Determinacy With Behavioral Expectations," Working Papers 001008, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    4. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    5. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 223-244, Summer.
    6. John A. Mondragon & Johannes Wieland, 2022. "Housing Demand and Remote Work," NBER Working Papers 30041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Benetton, Matteo & Kudlyak, Marianna & ,, 2022. "Dynastic Home Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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